Ipsos shows erosion of support for Moro and Doria, says Helena Chagas.
"Judge Moro saw his disapproval rating reach 45%, quite close to his approval rating, which stood at 48%," recalls columnist Helena Chagas; "another Ipsos statistic that confirms a trend detected by presidential polls is a certain weariness with João Doria, who seems to have overdone it with marketing and travel lately, giving the impression of having abandoned the management of São Paulo."
By Helena Chagas, in Divergent
We are surrounded by a profusion of polls, many conducted online, under diverse criteria and with results to suit all tastes. Not to mention those that are not publicly released and arrive via networks and messages. Sometimes, they cause more confusion than clarification. When they begin to converge, however, it is good to pay attention. The weekend brought, via Estadão, the Political Barometer from the Ipsos Institute which, combined with the CNT/MDA poll from last week, and with Poder360 this month, confirms the consolidation of Lula's approval rating and other trends, such as a certain decline in João Dória's approval and an unusual disapproval of Sergio Moro.
Ipsos conducts monthly credibility surveys and does not measure electoral preferences. However, the September results (between September 1st and 14th) align with polls that maintain former President Lula in the lead for 2018, even after his conviction by Sergio Moro and the near-confession of Antônio Palocci on September 6th. Compared to August, Lula's disapproval rating fell from 66% to 59%, while his approval rating rose from 32% to 40%.
At the same time, his main adversary in the duel of titans of public opinion, Judge Moro, saw his disapproval rating reach 45%, quite close to his approval rating, which stood at 48%. A year ago, Moro's numbers were 55% approval vs. 27% disapproval. For some poll observers, this may indicate that Lula has been successful in his strategy of portraying himself as a victim in the eyes of Moro, and that the judge may be exaggerating in maintaining his reputation for being bad in the confrontational testimonies recorded on video and widely disseminated by the media.
Since the beginning of Lava Jato, the judge's image has remained unshaken. This is a new and important piece of information for all strategists in the 2018 election, which, it seems, will have corruption as one of its central themes. Will it?
Another piece of data from Ipsos that confirms a trend detected by presidential polls is a certain decline in the popularity of João Doria, who seems to have overdone it with marketing and travel lately, giving the impression that he has abandoned the management of São Paulo. His disapproval rating rose from 52% to 58%, while his approval rating fell from 19% to 16%. Even so, he is the PSDB candidate in the best position, since Geraldo Alckmin's disapproval rating reaches 75%, surpassed only by the champion of champions, Michel Temer, disapproved by 94% of those interviewed, and Aécio Neves, with 89%.