Folha already projects Marina in third position.

247 – Given recent polls highlighting Marina Silva's decline, the 'Folha de S. Paulo' newspaper is already indicating that it "would not be surprising" if the PSB presidential candidate finishes in third place once again. Otavio Frias's newspaper also highlights Aécio Neves' return to the race. Read more:

It got tangled up.

Marina is still the favorite to face Dilma in the second round, but it wouldn't be surprising if she finishes in third place again.

Twenty days ago, Aécio Neves (PSDB) harbored no more than a faint hope of advancing to the second round of the presidential election. Now, however, with only four days left until the election, the politician has strong reasons to believe in a turnaround.

The senator does not register, in the voting intention polls, what could be classified as a surge. Having reached a low of 14% of preferences a month ago, he grew slowly until returning, in the survey completed yesterday (30) by the Datafolha institute, to the same 20% that he had from May to mid-August.

But the candidate from the PSDB party benefits from the constant, and more pronounced, decline of his direct opponent. Marina Silva (PSB), who at one point tied with President Dilma Rousseff (PT) for the lead in the race --both with 34%--, lost voters in all polls conducted in September.

The former Environment Minister now has 25%. This has reduced her lead over Aécio from 20 to just five points.
It's true that the candidate from the PSDB party, according to Datafolha polls, never exceeded that level—although he reached 23% in the Ibope poll released a week before Eduardo Campos' death. Two factors, however, are working in his favor in this final stretch.

First, Marina's drop is also significant in second-round simulations. Just a few weeks ago, the PSB candidate, and only she, was easily beating Dilma. In the current scenario, the former minister's performance is the same as Aécio's.

Therefore, the portion of the population willing to endorse any candidate capable of defeating the PT will no longer have the same incentive to cast their "strategic vote" for Marina. Each voter who migrates from the PSB to the PSDB will have a doubled impact on the gap between the candidates.

Furthermore, the party that Marina supports doesn't have even a shadow of the structure that Aécio's party has. The exact weight of the party machine on election day is unknown, but it's undeniable that these "cheat sheets" help many voters—even more so when the candidate and their party number are unknown.

With due consideration for the differences in scale, let's recall the case of Celso Russomanno in the 2012 municipal election. Running for the PRB party, he had, on September 20th, a 20-point lead over Fernando Haddad (PT), who was then in third place. Four days before the election, six points separated them. As is known, the PT candidate went to the second round and defeated José Serra (PSDB).

Of course, the situation is different now, starting with the fact that Marina Silva is not Russomanno. The PSB candidate still stands out as the favorite to face Dilma Rousseff in the second round, but it will no longer be a surprise if she finishes in third place once again.