Of course, this will depend on the identification of Lula's supporters with the ticket that emerged from the former president's electoral disqualification. According to Datafolha, around 30% say they would definitely vote for a candidate endorsed by Lula, and just over 15% say they might. But when Haddad is identified as that candidate, the total number drops to 13% (XP/Ipespe).
There are at least three possible, non-mutually exclusive, interpretations of this difference: 1) Lula has more voters than the PT; 2) Voters who like Lula don't necessarily like Haddad; and 3) Haddad is an unknown candidate. All three statements are evidently true. The question is which best explains the gap between the approval ratings of "Lula's candidate" and Haddad.
Lula does have more voters than the PT, but the party has returned to a 20% share of the electorate. In other words, Haddad, "Lula's candidate," still has market share to capture within the PT's universe. This also puts the second explanation into perspective. The most reasonable conclusion: Haddad will rise in the polls as he becomes better known as the PT's and Lula's candidate for this race.
In theory, he'll get at least 20%, the preference for the PT (Workers' Party) and about two-thirds of Lula's vote. If he gets less, he will have made mistakes; if he gets more than that, his first-round campaign will have been a success. And if the non-vote (blank/null/did not vote) stays around 33%, Haddad would reach 30% of the valid votes, which should be enough to be among the top two.
But for this theory to become reality, it requires execution. Which isn't rocket science. Where are the risks? One is Ciro Gomes growing in popularity and capturing part of the PT-Lula vote. It could happen, but the PT has the means, including TV and radio time, to shield its electorate. If he wants to gain traction, Ciro has to step outside the confines of the left. And he's trying.
Another risk is a resurgence of #LavaJato against the Workers' Party (PT), even though the operation has already thoroughly exposed that shell. But, unless something new and spectacular emerges against Haddad, the effect of #LavaJato on the PT is already priced in. At this point, potential new facts generated within its scope might haunt other candidacies more.
Even because of this detail, the enthusiasm for #LavaJato isn't the same anymore. One symptom is that Alckmin's alliance with the so-called centrão has received only perfunctory criticism, far from the wave of indignation that would have occurred in other times, and if the characters were different. But it's worth keeping an eye on things. If the wind changes again, Marina Silva and Álvaro Dias are in the running.
The challenge of the first round is manageable for the PT (Workers' Party). A second round would be more complicated, where the anti-PT sentiment, now strong in society, would find fertile ground. It's no coincidence that Lula opted for Haddad and his somewhat centrist, albeit left-leaning, approach. If the "center" remains open, why should Lula give up repeating what has always worked for him?
I don't know if it will happen, because the opponents aren't sleeping, but it would be curious if, after so much hype, the platitudes of the "center" and the "new" ended up being abducted by the Workers' Party in alliance with the Communist Party of Brazil. Moreover, on the second point, Haddad is the only competitive candidate who looks like he'll survive to the 2022 presidential election, regardless of the current outcome.
In other words, Lula is playing for the present, yes. If it doesn't work out, he will have already played for the future as well. Prison doesn't seem to have negatively affected his skill in this game of chess so far.
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The vast difference in viewership between the Band TV debate and the parallel event held by the PT (Workers' Party) online is making those who believed this election would be decided "on social media" realize. And, as the news has already reported, the PT seems to have realized that the "alternative" campaign has run its course. Time to turn the page.