The electoral landscape, which had clearly defined competitors before the June protests, has been shrouded in uncertainty. There is now open talk in political circles of the possibility that President Dilma Rousseff will not run for re-election. A split in the PSDB, which Aécio Neves believed he had unified, is already being considered, with José Serra running for another party. And nobody knows for sure what direction the PMDB, a ship of many flags, will take: the alliance with the PT is hanging by a thread. Against this backdrop, questions linger about what former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will do.
Lula, who traveled abroad at the beginning of the protests and was away for three weeks, spoke for three hours with Dilma after his return. He remains silent, but he is not inactive. On the contrary, he has been talking a lot. Including with the governor of Pernambuco, Eduardo Campos, from whom he had been estranged. It is also true that Lula, in the most recondite political circles, has complained about Dilma's "stubbornness," her centralism, and her harshness in political dealings. "Now that her popularity has fallen, perhaps she will listen to us more," he told a minister in his government. But he has also complained about the PMDB, which he brought into the government in 2006, giving it powerful ministries. He helped elect governors from the party, such as Sérgio Cabral in Rio, whose government he supported with funds and resources. Later, he orchestrated the coalition to elect Dilma, with Michel Temer as vice-president.
The protests have thrown the electoral landscape into a fog of uncertainty, and questions linger about what former President Lula will do.
Today, Lula is participating in the closing of a conference on Brazilian foreign policy during the period 2003-2013, that is, during his government and Dilma's, at the Federal University of ABC (UFABC). This will be his first public appearance after the protests, which fuels some expectation in political circles about what he will say. It is known, through members of the Workers' Party (PT), that he has already complained about Dilma in this area as well. He believes she might be taking advantage of the vacuum left by Hugo Chávez's death to expand her own influence and that of Brazil. This would require a larger and more supportive regional offensive. It is certain that Lula has made two recent shifts: one in relation to Dilma, expressing, albeit privately, some reservations (after hearing so many complaints from businesspeople, politicians, and social movements), and another in relation to Campos, resuming dialogue, even though the governor's friends say they never stopped talking. Campos, in turn, is more restrained, opting to speak about economic problems at political events. Lula's health is a concern for all who see him as a possible continuation of the left in the central government. Despite the rumors, his friends assure that he is well and free of cancer. His speech today in São Bernardo do Campo (SP) is particularly interesting. In Brasília, it's a time of dry fog.
Big ambush
The dinner held the night before last at the home of the Speaker of the House, Henrique Eduardo Alves (PMDB-RN), was intended to mark the end of the legislative semester, but it turned into a session of protests against the treatment received from the government. More than 70 deputies attended, but only 15 to 20 stayed later and pressured the Speaker of the House and the acting president of the party, Valdir Raupp, for decisions regarding the government. Vice-President Michel Temer, who is also consulting with the House caucus, as well as the party leader in the House, Eduardo Cunha (RJ), had already left. "What are we doing in this weak and arrogant government, which needs the PMDB and treats the party like a doormat?" This phrase summarizes the grumbling of the evening. Raupp scheduled another dinner for last night, promising that, from now on, he will hold regular meetings to discuss politics, not parliamentary action. But, as leader Eduardo Cunha said in an interview with Correio published on Sunday, the caucus, for now, is fighting to get into the government, not to get out. This, however, depends on the evolution of the president's popularity, which has seen confirmed declines according to the CNT-MDA poll.
It is certain that the PMDB is lying in wait: it violated the Constitution by decreeing a de facto recess without approving the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), because it plans to approve, on August 6th, the mandatory release of parliamentary amendments. Now some PMDB members are already indulging in the luxury of refusing the release of amendments by the government, betting on the future. As a notable party member explains, the mandatory rule will guarantee more equal conditions for competition in 2014, at least among the parties in the government's base. And, by extension, there will be benefits for the opposition, which naturally supports the initiative.
Dilma: humane and moved
The rational, objective, and tough Dilma was touched on a sensitive point during Monday's meeting with evangelical leaders, mediated by the Minister of Fisheries, Marcelo Crivella. The prayer, holding hands "for the difficult moment the country is going through," and the teary eyes during some hymns were already noted. Before that, however, they all spoke of the adversities they have faced as women. Bishop Sônia Hernandez made a strong impression when she spoke of her imprisonment in the US and her son in a coma. While not feminists, they said they understand that Dilma faces restrictions because she is a woman and because she does not abdicate her authority. It was during this part of the conversation that Dilma took them to her office, lending more intimacy to the meeting, where they even promised a campaign with a slogan already used: "Mess with Dilma, mess with me."
Lula, who traveled abroad at the beginning of the protests and was away for three weeks, spoke for three hours with Dilma after his return. He remains silent, but he is not inactive. On the contrary, he has been talking a lot. Including with the governor of Pernambuco, Eduardo Campos, from whom he had been estranged. It is also true that Lula, in the most recondite political circles, has complained about Dilma's "stubbornness," her centralism, and her harshness in political dealings. "Now that her popularity has fallen, perhaps she will listen to us more," he told a minister in his government. But he has also complained about the PMDB, which he brought into the government in 2006, giving it powerful ministries. He helped elect governors from the party, such as Sérgio Cabral in Rio, whose government he supported with funds and resources. Later, he orchestrated the coalition to elect Dilma, with Michel Temer as vice-president.
The protests have thrown the electoral landscape into a fog of uncertainty, and questions linger about what former President Lula will do.
Today, Lula is participating in the closing of a conference on Brazilian foreign policy during the period 2003-2013, that is, during his government and Dilma's, at the Federal University of ABC (UFABC). This will be his first public appearance after the protests, which fuels some expectation in political circles about what he will say. It is known, through members of the Workers' Party (PT), that he has already complained about Dilma in this area as well. He believes she might be taking advantage of the vacuum left by Hugo Chávez's death to expand her own influence and that of Brazil. This would require a larger and more supportive regional offensive. It is certain that Lula has made two recent shifts: one in relation to Dilma, expressing, albeit privately, some reservations (after hearing so many complaints from businesspeople, politicians, and social movements), and another in relation to Campos, resuming dialogue, even though the governor's friends say they never stopped talking. Campos, in turn, is more restrained, opting to speak about economic problems at political events. Lula's health is a concern for all who see him as a possible continuation of the left in the central government. Despite the rumors, his friends assure that he is well and free of cancer. His speech today in São Bernardo do Campo (SP) is particularly interesting. In Brasília, it's a time of dry fog.
Big ambush
The dinner held the night before last at the home of the Speaker of the House, Henrique Eduardo Alves (PMDB-RN), was intended to mark the end of the legislative semester, but it turned into a session of protests against the treatment received from the government. More than 70 deputies attended, but only 15 to 20 stayed later and pressured the Speaker of the House and the acting president of the party, Valdir Raupp, for decisions regarding the government. Vice-President Michel Temer, who is also consulting with the House caucus, as well as the party leader in the House, Eduardo Cunha (RJ), had already left. "What are we doing in this weak and arrogant government, which needs the PMDB and treats the party like a doormat?" This phrase summarizes the grumbling of the evening. Raupp scheduled another dinner for last night, promising that, from now on, he will hold regular meetings to discuss politics, not parliamentary action. But, as leader Eduardo Cunha said in an interview with Correio published on Sunday, the caucus, for now, is fighting to get into the government, not to get out. This, however, depends on the evolution of the president's popularity, which has seen confirmed declines according to the CNT-MDA poll.
It is certain that the PMDB is lying in wait: it violated the Constitution by decreeing a de facto recess without approving the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), because it plans to approve, on August 6th, the mandatory release of parliamentary amendments. Now some PMDB members are already indulging in the luxury of refusing the release of amendments by the government, betting on the future. As a notable party member explains, the mandatory rule will guarantee more equal conditions for competition in 2014, at least among the parties in the government's base. And, by extension, there will be benefits for the opposition, which naturally supports the initiative.
Dilma: humane and moved
The rational, objective, and tough Dilma was touched on a sensitive point during Monday's meeting with evangelical leaders, mediated by the Minister of Fisheries, Marcelo Crivella. The prayer, holding hands "for the difficult moment the country is going through," and the teary eyes during some hymns were already noted. Before that, however, they all spoke of the adversities they have faced as women. Bishop Sônia Hernandez made a strong impression when she spoke of her imprisonment in the US and her son in a coma. While not feminists, they said they understand that Dilma faces restrictions because she is a woman and because she does not abdicate her authority. It was during this part of the conversation that Dilma took them to her office, lending more intimacy to the meeting, where they even promised a campaign with a slogan already used: "Mess with Dilma, mess with me."