How the Roberto Jefferson episode disoriented Bolsonaro supporters on social media and split his backers.

247 - The Roberto Jefferson episode has thrown Jair Bolsonaro's social media campaign into disarray a week before the runoff election. Important figures in Bolsonaro's movement, such as Allan Santos e Paulo Figueiredo Filho, have already made public statements revealing a rift.

According to analysis published in the column Sonar - Listening to the networks, in Globo, a survey showed that Bolsonaro supporters were disoriented: “There was criticism of the violent action, carried out against police officers, a group close to Bolsonaro supporters, but also a recalculation of the route using the episode to complain about 'censorship', a topic that has been dominating the debate on the networks in the last week”.

The change in stance of the candidate seeking re-election and leader of the group was the primary reason for this: in his first statement on the case, Bolsonaro, despite criticizing Roberto Jefferson's reaction against federal police officers with gunfire and grenades and his statements against Cármen Lúcia, also criticized his arrest, citing "investigations without any basis in the Constitution"—which is not true. However, Bolsonaro's second statement attempts to distance himself from his ally, calling him a "bandit."

In a Twitter thread, Felipe Neto recalled that Bolsonaro assured some supporters, such as Otoni de Paula, that he would send the Armed Forces to protect Roberto Jefferson. "All afternoon, his biggest supporters defended Roberto Jefferson, including the 'jovem pan' and the chupetinha," the YouTuber wrote, referring to Congressman-elect Nikolas Ferreira. "This was celebrated by the core Bolsonarist support, seen as a 'measure of resistance,'" Felipe wrote.

Confusion was inevitable, given that the main discourse of Bolsonaro's supporters in this campaign has been attacks on institutions, especially the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), and personally Minister Alexandre de Moraes. When he realized that the episode could harm his campaign, Bolsonaro did not hesitate to adapt to a new discourse, even going so far as to say that he had no photos with the former congressman – a claim that was subsequently contradicted on social media and in the press.

"Why is President Bolsonaro acting more critically toward Roberto Jefferson than toward Alexandre de Moraes, the cause of this regrettable and unnecessary confusion?" asked Paulo Figueiredo Filho, a commentator for Jovem Pan. "Congratulations, Alexandre de Moraes, Bolsonaro does what you want," Allan dos Santos quipped in a video.

In evaluating the journalist Maria Cristina Fernandes, from Valor Econômico, the short time between the episode and the runoff favors Lula's campaign. "It even has the potential to take votes away from Bolsonaro. And not just from the presidential candidate. Even Haddad has a chance to reverse his disadvantage. Not only because his opponent, Tarcísio de Freitas, who is leading the race, made the same mistake as Bolsonaro, but also because, in São Paulo election campaigns, the integrity of the police force is a fundamental principle," he believes.