Ceasefire imposed out of desperation by Israel, says Pepe Escobar.
According to the geopolitical analyst, the decision to halt the fighting came from Tel Aviv after Iranian attacks compromised strategic targets.
247 - The ceasefire announced after the United States bombed Iranian nuclear facilities was not the result of balanced mediation, nor of humanitarian appeals. According to journalist and geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar, the truce was imposed "out of desperation by Israel," which found itself on the brink of economic and military catastrophe in the face of Iran's coordinated response.
The analysis was presented by Escobar on his program Pepe Café, available on YouTube, in which he details the behind-the-scenes events of the offensive and the negotiations that led to the Israeli retreat. "The pressure for a ceasefire came from Israel on Trump," the journalist stated. "They were running the serious risk of seeing their economy completely paralyzed in two weeks."
The offensive that backfired.
On June 22, the United States launched an attack against three Iranian nuclear facilities — Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. The offensive was seen as the harbinger of a dangerous escalation, according to Escobar, with the potential to trigger a full-scale war. The chosen date, June 22, coincides with the beginning of Operation Barbarossa, the Nazi offensive against the Soviet Union in 1941 — a fact that the analyst described as "highly symbolic and provocative."
However, the Iranian response was surprising. Missiles were launched against the US military base of Al Udeid in Qatar — considered one of the most strategic in the region. “It was a direct message from Iran: we can strike any US base in West Asia, whenever and however we want,” said Escobar.
Strategic attacks and the risk of collapse.
More than a symbolic reaction, the Iranian attacks began to target key centers of the Israeli economy. Among the targets cited by Escobar were the Dimona nuclear power plant, the port of Haifa, Ben Gurion Airport, research centers such as the Weizmann Institute, and the headquarters of the Rafael defense company, considered the Israeli equivalent of Lockheed Martin.
“Iran’s most advanced missiles have begun to fall on strategic economic targets. Within days, Israel could see its economy in ruins,” the journalist reported. According to him, the interception rate of the Israeli air defense system has fallen to less than 50%, with a downward trend to 30%, 20%, or even less. “The stockpiles of interceptors were dwindling,” he added.
Russia takes center stage, Trump tries to capitalize.
Escobar highlighted that the decisive role in containing the conflict came from Moscow. A meeting between the Iranian Foreign Minister and President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin was the turning point. "Ayatollah Khamenei sent a personal letter to Putin, which demonstrates the level of trust and urgency of the situation," he explained.
According to the analyst, from that meeting onwards, Russia assumed a leading role in the decision-making process. "It was from this move that the Israelis became desperate and sent a formal letter to Iran, asking for an end to the war," Escobar stated. Tehran's response was categorical: "We will end the war when we decide it should end."
Despite this, President Donald Trump — who authorized the June 22 attacks — tried to present himself as a peacemaker. "He saw an opportunity to pose as a peace negotiator after nearly starting World War III," the journalist ironically noted.
Strategic balance and new Iranian posture
According to Escobar, Iran emerged from the confrontation strengthened, even at a high cost. "The nuclear program remains intact, the ballistic missile system was not hit, and the country gave a show of force that impacted the Pentagon and the White House."
He also highlighted the shift in Iranian military doctrine: “They have abandoned a deterrent posture and adopted an offensive strategy, with hypersonic missiles and the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, which could collapse the global financial system in a matter of days.”
Implications for the BRICS and the Global South
Escobar concluded his analysis with a warning: “This is a fundamental lesson for the BRICS and for the entire Global South. One of the group's full members, Iran, was attacked by an empire and managed to defend itself firmly.”
The expectation now rests on Brazil's role as president of the bloc. "Will the BRICS rise to the occasion in this new, incandescent moment in the international context?" he questioned. Watch:
