Trade tensions with Trump open up space for Brazil and China to expand cooperation.
An article by Filipe Porto highlights that tariffs can boost strategic partnerships in energy, agriculture, infrastructure, and technology.
247 - The escalation of trade tensions between Brazil and the United States could redefine the country's international positioning and pave the way for closer ties with China. article published in Global Times, the researcher Filipe Porto, ABC Federal UniversityThe analysis suggests that US President Donald Trump's decision to raise tariffs on Brazilian products by 40 percentage points—reaching 50% as of August 1st—is not based on trade imbalances.
According to Porto, this is a political measure. “Brazil is not responsible for deficits in the American trade balance. In 2024, the US recorded a surplus of US$7,4 billion in trade in goods with Brazil,” he states. For the researcher, the Trump administration's action reflects “an electoral and symbolic stance,” reinforcing political alliances, such as the historic rapprochement with former president Jair Bolsonaro, while increasing economic pressure on Brazil.
China emerges as a strategic partner.
Filipe Porto's article highlights that the dispute opens new opportunities for cooperation between Brazil and China. In sectors such as energyChinese companies may sign long-term contracts with Brazilian producers, guaranteeing stable prices at a time when Brazilian oil is losing competitiveness in the US.
No agribusinessReduced access to the American market tends to stimulate the closing of advance contracts with Chinese buyers, ensuring greater financial predictability and strengthening high value-added products such as coffee, nuts, honey and orange juice — items in line with health and wellness trends in the Asian country.
O steel sector Porto also highlights this as a point of convergence. Brazilian mining companies, such as Vale, could expand their integration with Chinese steel mills, diversifying suppliers and strengthening the logistical efficiency of the Chinese industry.
Infrastructure and technology on the agenda.
Another area of mutual interest is infrastructureAccording to the article, regions like the North and Northeast of Brazil, which face logistical bottlenecks, could attract Chinese investment. ports and railways, funded by institutions such as the China Development Bank and the Exim Bank. These initiatives fit into Belt and Road Initiative, aligning economic diplomacy and logistical integration.
Na Technological areaThe weakening presence of American companies in Brazil would open up space for Chinese cloud, payment, and digital services platforms to expand their operations, in partnership with Brazilian telecommunications, financial institutions, and public agencies.
Porto concludes that, given the uncertainty and unilateral stance of the US, China is reinforcing its image of... stable and cooperative partnercapable of promoting long-term agreements and mutual gains. "The moment is opportune to deepen relations in trade, investment and technology, strengthening Brazil's role in a global South-South cooperation network," highlights the researcher in Global Times.
