Will you face a duel with Dilma, Eduardo?

Paulo Emílio_PE247 Recent statements attributed to President Dilma Rousseff (PT) through intermediaries have placed the governor of Pernambuco and potential presidential candidate for the PSB, Eduardo Campos, in a dilemma: to move forward with the project or postpone his intentions until 2018. According to these intermediaries, Dilma allegedly declared that her term "is for eight years" and that she is "a candidate for re-election and an energetic candidate," in addition to guaranteeing the vice-presidential slot to Michel Temer, of the PMDB. The Planalto Palace has neither confirmed nor denied any of the statements. Meanwhile, the vice-president of the PSB, Roberto Amaral, repeats the discourse that "2014 is for 2014," reaffirms that the party remains in the government base and alongside President Dilma, and that everything else is mere speculation. But the leader Beto Albuquerque (PSB/RS) is taking a new stance. "We will have a presidential candidate, we are working towards that. The PSB is in the government, helping President Dilma, but we are a growing party and the possibility of the PSB having a presidential candidate is concrete and real. We are already talking with other parties and exploring alliances for this," he said, who is considered a spokesperson for Eduardo Campos.

Fueled by an approval rating exceeding 70%, the measures announced regarding the reduction of electricity bills should further boost the president's popularity. The meeting between her and former president Lula, held on Friday afternoon (25), in São Paulo, also raises a red flag for potential opponents. With the posture and speech of a candidate, the meeting would have served for Dilma to position herself as a candidate for re-election. Earlier this week, the president of the Lula Institute, Paulo Okamotto, stated, during breaks at an international seminar in which the former president was participating, that "our candidate is Dilminha". The close relationship between Okamotto and Lula leads to the understanding that the statement was already a position defined by Lula himself.

With her campaign underway, Dilma preempted anyone who dreams of taking away her chances of a second term. And that's where the danger lies. If the economy takes off throughout 2013, she will be an almost unbeatable candidate in the next major election. But if there is a decline in this direction, potential adversaries such as Senator Aécio Neves (PSDB) from Minas Gerais, who has already launched his candidacy, and Eduardo Campos gain strength to position themselves as an alternative to the PT's model of government. And both, from the PSDB and the PSB, are closely monitoring the success or failure of the economy throughout this year. The economy is considered one of the key factors in the outcome of the 2014 elections.

Another alternative to consider is that, with economic performance falling short of expectations, the PT itself might call for Lula's return to the Palácio do Planalto (Presidential Palace), from where he left with very high popularity levels. Since the former president has never ceased to be involved in political maneuvering, a stance that is likely to intensify given the president's intention to seek re-election, his connections among various parties position him as the most viable "Plan B" for the PT to remain in power.

With the PMDB supporting Dilma, one of Lula's main options would be to offer the vice-presidential slot to Eduardo Campos, whose party experienced the most growth in the last municipal elections and proved fundamental to the government's base due to the weight of its representation in the National Congress. Some members of the Workers' Party (PT) have even advocated for this possibility within the party.

Roberto Amaral says he has “already heard” comments about the possibility of a Lula-Eduardo ticket. “Many things are said, many things are speculated. The certainties we have are that we will continue to support President Dilma in whatever is necessary and that we will not ally ourselves with right-wing candidates. We will not be Aécio (Neves)'s Viagra. Yes, we want to grow, but 2013 is not 2014. Nobody knows what will happen in the future. Dilma has very high popularity at a time when the economy is doing badly. Nobody could have expected this. But that's what's happening. So how can we predict what will happen from now on?” Amaral told [the publication]. PE247.

The socialist's dismissal of the possibility of forming a ticket with Aécio comes in the wake of speculation that the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) is increasingly aligning itself with the PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party) with a view to the 2014 elections. Other opposition parties also aspire to a ticket with this formation. The latest example of this desire was expressed by the mayor of Aracaju (SE), João Alves (DEM), who said that "the opposition's golden dream" is a ticket composed of Aécio and Eduardo Campos. Increasingly isolated, the PSDB clings, even for lack of other alternatives, to the country's economic performance.

The prevailing thought is that if the economy doesn't take off, it's worse for the government and better for the party and its candidate. The dismissal of a possible candidate, announced by the PSB, puts the PSDB in even greater isolation due to a lack of qualified candidates to compete with an already weakened Aécio Neves.  

Judging by the way things are going, the silence of Eduardo Campos and the PSB party around 2014 will mean that the party will continue to be courted by both the government and the opposition.