PSB will not start 2014 as part of Dilma's government base.

Paulo Emílio _PE247 - With plenty of fuel left to burn and determined to launch the presidential candidacy of the governor of Pernambuco, Eduardo Campos, at all costs, the PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party) is expected to leave the support base of President Dilma Rousseff's (PT) government soon after the deadline for party affiliations in October. “The PSB will not remain in the base. We will work to have a presidential candidate. As soon as the deadline for party affiliations ends, we will evaluate the number of candidates. One thing is certain, we will be out of the government by the end of the year,” says the PSB leader in the Chamber of Deputies, federal deputy Beto Albuquerque (RS). This statement puts pressure on PSB members, such as the Minister of National Integration, Fernando Bezerra Coelho, and the governor of Ceará, Cid Gomes, who advocate for the party's continued support of the government and its endorsement of President Dilma's reelection.

According to Beto Albuquerque, most of the Socialist Party's directorates support Eduardo's candidacy for the presidency and have already begun mobilizing to strengthen state-level campaigns in this direction. The congressman also says that, since the party's position will be decided based on the majority during the party convention, "there is no risk whatsoever" of the PSB backing down.

“The majority of the party wants Eduardo as the candidate. With or without dissenting voices, we have the votes (at the convention) to have our own candidate. There is no voice capable of taking away the solid majority from the presidential candidacy. There is no problem with people disagreeing, but the party will decide at the right time. And then, whoever wants to remain in the party will have to follow the majority decision,” says Albuquerque in a clear message to those who advocate that the party remain in the support base of President Dilma's government.

One of the defenders of the PSB's continued presence in the government coalition and the maintenance of the alliance with the PT, the Minister of National Integration, Fernando Bezerra Coelho, observes that the moment demands caution. “The party hasn't decided yet. So, everyone can speak, express their opinions, until the party defines itself. There has to be a plurality of ideas, respect for divergent positions,” assesses FBC. The minister is one of those who defend the PSB's continued support of President Dilma's government, as does the governor of Ceará, Cid Gomes, and more recently the mayor of Duque de Caxias and president of the PSB in Rio de Janeiro, Alexandre Cardoso. “I don't think there should be penalization of those who think differently. If that's the case, what about São Paulo? Should we condemn those who support Governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)?” he questions. FBC denies that he is thinking of leaving the PSB for another party and affirms “that there is no climate of diaspora within the PSB.”

According to sources within the PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party), Eduardo Campos' entry into the presidential race depends more on external factors than on the PSB's own desire to contest the presidency in 2014. “The PSB's break with the PT (Workers' Party) depends less on politics and more on the economy. Eduardo is in this game. He remains an ally while waiting for a decision on this. His project is one of continuity with improvements. The resumption of dialogue with former President Lula leaves this open. He will defend Dilma if the economy is doing well,” a PSB source said on condition of anonymity. PE247.

The same source revealed that, in addition to the economic factor, other points are being taken into account by the PSB and Eduardo Campos himself. “Eduardo is loving the idea of ​​running for President. But he also knows that he can't be swayed by pressure from part of the party and that he shouldn't make a statement until he has a better assessment of the whole situation. Dilma is recovering her popularity, the economy is stable, and we are on track to generate 1 million jobs this year. The country should grow 2,3% this year, which is low but well above what we grew last year, and in 2014 we should reach 3,5%. Not to mention that there is also strong pressure coming from the streets, with the popular demonstrations. That's why Eduardo has stated that he will only discuss 2014 in 2014,” the source affirms.

For Beto Albuquerque, however, the current situation demonstrates that the moment for the PSB to announce its departure from the government coalition is drawing ever closer. “We are on the verge of a crisis; just look at the data on job creation in July. The Caged [General Register of Employed and Unemployed Workers] confirms it. This is a reflection of measures taken a year or two ago. An emergency measure will not solve this. Economic performance is not a reflection of decisions made yesterday. It takes time. Furthermore, Dilma is expected to enter 2014 with 35% popularity. All of this leads us to advocate for the PSB's own candidacy,” the parliamentarian asserts.

The PSB's position, should it definitively break with the Dilma government, is likely to further sour the relationship between the socialist party and the PT. "The PT and the PSB are in a relationship of mutual analysis, but with a certain tension. The victories the PSB had in 2010 and more recently in 2012 gave the party this advantage. Today, the PT is analyzing the true extent of the PSB's strength. The PT wants to extend its 12 years in power. But to do that, it needs to inject a new element, and that element is Eduardo. That's why Lula advocated that Dilma get closer to the PSB. But the PSB doesn't want to and shouldn't anticipate this electoral debate before 2014. On this point, Eduardo is right," says a member of the socialist leadership.

Now, it remains to be seen whether Eduardo will resist internal pressures from his own party and avoid a direct confrontation with the PT (Workers' Party) this year, or whether he will prefer to buy more time and leave the confrontation for the first quarter of 2014.