Ibrape survey: “Renans” lead and Temer's minister is last.

By Edivaldo Junior/gazetaweb.com - The first Ibrape poll in Marechal Deodoro, released here, brings a rather unpleasant "surprise" for Minister Marx Beltrão (PMDB). He appears numerically tied in the municipality with João Caldas (PSB). Both are pre-candidates for the Senate. The difference is that the city is currently a kind of "stronghold" for the minister. The mayor of the municipality, Cacau Filho (PSD), is an important ally of Marx Beltrão.

The city, with approximately 46 inhabitants, is among the 20 largest municipalities in the state in terms of population and its economy is dominated by sugarcane production, industrial activity, and tourism. The current mayor, Cacau, is in his first term.

The Ibrape survey shows the current political scenario in the municipality. The research was carried out on October 3, 2017, with 800 voters aged 16 or older, in all neighborhoods and villages of Marechal Deodoro. The confidence interval is 95% and the margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus.

In this survey, Ibrape wanted to know the voter's opinion regarding the candidates for governor, senator, and federal representative.

Renan Filho leads

Ibrape wanted to know, if the elections were held today, who the voter would choose, in a scenario with 3 candidates in the prompted vote.

In Marechal Deodoro, the current governor would win in the first round. If the elections were held today, according to Ibrape, Renan Filho (PMDB) would have 37% of the votes, Rui Palmeira (PSDB) would get 24% of the votes, and JHC (PSB) would get 9% of the votes.

The survey also shows 16% undecided and 14% blank or null votes.

In a direct confrontation, Renan Filho would have 38% and Rui Palmeira 28%.

Renan leads in the race for the Senate.

Unlike the polls in Atalaia and Campo Alegre, led by Benedito de Lira, in Marechal Deodoro, Senator Renan Calheiros is in the lead. The "surprise" in the city – I repeat – is the tie between Marx Beltrão and João Caladas.

As in previous surveys, Ibrape has put together a scenario with five likely candidates for the Senate: Renan Calheiros (PMDB), Teotonio Vilela (PSDB), Benedito de Lira (PP), Marx Beltrão (PMDB), and João Caldas (PSB).

The survey simulated, once again, the first and second votes for senator – in the 2018 elections there will be two seats and the voter will vote twice for the Senate.

If the elections were held today, combining the two votes, Renan Calheiros would have 32%. Teotônio Vilela would come in second with 26%, and Benedito de Lira would have 22%. Marx Beltrão and João Caldas are tied for fourth place with 10% each.

Of those surveyed, 24% said they were undecided and 23% said they would cast a blank or invalid vote.

Two votes

According to the research, in the first vote Renan Calheiros would get 22%, followed by Téo (13%), Benedito de Lira (12%), Marx (3%) and João Caldas (3%).

The second round of voting, according to Ibrape, would be as follows: Téo 13%, Renan 10%, Biu 10%, João Caldas 7%, and Marx 7%.

Ronaldo Lessa

The results from Marechal Deodoro once again point to Ronaldo Lessa and Heloísa Helena as favorites. The two continue to score well in all municipalities, especially those closest to Maceió.

In Marechal Deodoro, Ronaldo Lessa has 14,5%, followed by Heloisa Helena (13,6%), JHC (6,5%), Sérgio Toledo (6,2%), Paulão (3,6%), Carimbão (3,2%), Maurício Quintella (2,7%), Rosinha da Adefal (2,3%), Rodrigo Cunha (2,2%), Joaquim Beltrão (2,1%), and Arthur Lira (1,6%). The remaining candidates had less than 1% of mentions.