Fortiori poll: Marconi leads in both first and second rounds.

Adriana Marinelli, from A Redação - Candidate for re-election to the Government of Goiás, Marconi Perillo (PSDB) has a wide advantage over the other candidates. This is shown by the new round of the Fortiori survey, released this Sunday (July 20th) by the newspaper Opção. According to the survey, if the election were held today, Marconi would reach 46% of the valid votes in the first round, against 34% for Iris Rezende (PMDB). Considering all second-round simulations, Marconi also appears with an advantage.

Conducted between the 11th and 15th of this month, the survey interviewed 800 voters in 71 cities, presenting a margin of error of 3,4% with a 95% confidence interval. In the spontaneous survey, the current governor totals 23% of voting intentions, surpassing the last survey, when he had 21 points. Iris Rezende, unlike the incumbent governor, fluctuated downwards, from 10% to 9%. Tied with 3% each, Vanderlan Cardoso (PSB) and Antônio Gomide (PT) appear next. Undecided voters total 55%.

In the stimulated poll, when the candidates' names are presented, Marconi also appears in the lead, but with Iris Rezende closer behind. The PSDB candidate has 38% of the voting intentions, which represents 46% of the valid votes. The PMDB candidate has 28%, which means 34% of the valid votes.

2rd shift

In a possible second round, Marconi Perillo maintains his lead in all possible scenarios surveyed, being the only one that showed a positive variation in all simulations. According to the survey, Vanderlan and Gomide remained stable, while Iris Rezende dropped 1 point.

Rejection

Considering the candidates' rejection rates, according to the Fortiori/Jornal Opção survey, Marconi Perillo, Antônio Gomide, and Vanderlan Cardoso showed negative fluctuations between June and July. In this regard, Iris remained stable.

Senate

As recorded in June, federal deputy Ronaldo Caiado (DEM), who is running for Senate, continues to lead in the polls. Even with a slight drop of one point, the Democrat still has 35% in the poll. According to the survey, Marina Sant'Anna (PT) (11%) loses second place to Vilmar Rocha (PSD), who now has 14%.

Considering the rejection rates of the Senate candidates, Caiado leads with 16%, followed by Vilmar with 10%, and Marina and Aguimar Jesuíno (PSB) with 8%.

Presidency

With little difference from the last survey, the poll on voting intentions for President shows Dilma Rousseff (PT) in the lead with 29%. In second place is the PSDB candidate Aécio Neves, with 25%. Eduardo Campos is third, with 8%. In the spontaneous poll, the result remains unchanged. Dilma leads (21%), followed by Aécio (11%) and Eduardo Campos (2%).

Methodology:

SAMPLE PLAN

Universe – voters residing and domiciled in the state of Goiás.

Sample type – non-probability sample, with quotas proportional to the variables of sex, age, education level, and place of residence.

Sample Size – 800 interviews.

Confidence Interval and Margin of Error – For a 95% confidence interval, the maximum margin of error is 3,4%.

Data collection dates – July 11-15, 2014.
   

Internal control and monitoring system

The data collection was carried out by trained interviewers, supervised by staff. Ten percent of the questionnaires underwent a verification process, as required by the standards for this type of survey.

Registration – TRE number GO-00048/2014 and TSE BR-00229/2014

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