Part of the semi-arid region could become desert by 2100.

Heloisa Cristaldo - Agência Brasil

Petrolina (PE) - Studies by the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) based on climate trends reveal that, by 2100, part of the Brazilian Semi-Arid region could become a desert. According to Inpe researcher José Marengo, rising temperatures and lack of rain may be the main causes of aridity in the region.

"By 2050, some parts of the Semi-Arid region may already become arid. Currently, it only rains part of the year, and the precipitation is poorly distributed. In the case of aridity, it is when there is no rain," he explains. For Marengo, the current situation in the Semi-Arid region is worrying due to the duration of the drought. The severe lack of rain for the second consecutive year is imposing on the region the worst drought in the last 50 years, affecting 1.046 municipalities.

"The biggest problem is that the population is still not adapted to drought. And this is not a surprising phenomenon; it has happened before. Currently, the population suffering from the effects of drought abandons their land in the countryside and migrates to large cities. This can create a social problem; desperate for food, people resort to looting. They don't want to steal, they just want to eat. The impact of drought has become a social and political phenomenon, not just a meteorological one."

The most aggressive effects of the drought are concentrated in the Northeast Region, where the Ministry of the Environment (MMA) has already officially identified four desertification hotspots: covering 1.340 square kilometers and approximately 1400 municipalities in 11 states. The area encompasses 16% of Brazilian territory.

The affected areas are located in the Seridó region of Paraíba, where the phenomenon occurs due to a lack of management of the Caatinga biome to meet extensive livestock farming and energy demands; in the Xingó region, which includes municipalities in the states of Alagoas, Pernambuco, Sergipe, and Bahia, the occurrence is due to irrigation without technical criteria, causing soil salinization; in the Gibões region (Piauí), there is intense soil degradation due to inadequate mining processes; and in the Irauçuba region (Ceará), due to a lack of management of natural resources.

According to Iêdo Sá, a geoprocessing researcher at Embrapa Semiárido, the desertification process is a consequence of human and climatic factors. "The Semi-arid region has a series of conditions such as climate, soil, water, and rainfall patterns that are very favorable to environmental degradation processes. These, combined with inadequate practices adopted by humans, sometimes out of ignorance, bad faith, or lack of capital, cause desertification."

Among the human factors, he highlights deforestation, excessive extraction of forest products, wildfires, overgrazing, intensive land use and its inadequate management, and, lastly, the use of technologies that are not appropriate for fragile ecosystems. "With respect to the climatic causes of degradation, it is possible to mention the recurring and prolonged droughts that affect several countries and that further aggravate the consequences derived from human action."

Sá explains that in areas undergoing desertification, the proportions of poverty and extreme poverty are above the national average. According to him, in the Brazilian Northeast, an area larger than the state of Ceará has already been severely or very severely affected by desertification.

"Similarly, poverty and destitution generally affect the rural population to a greater extent than the urban population, even though, in absolute numbers, there are more poor people in cities. It is common in rural areas for some members of the family group to migrate, temporarily or permanently, in search of more productive activities, whether in agriculture itself or in other sectors."

To combat this process, the Ministry of the Environment (MMA) has allocated around R$ 25 million to initiatives for the sustainable use of natural resources. According to the director of the Ministry's Department for Combating Desertification, Francisco Barreto Campello, to enable the application of these resources, the ministry has facilitated a set of projects that promote coexistence with semi-arid conditions to combat desertification, aiming at food, energy, water, and biodiversity security.

The desertification process is not observed only in the Brazilian Semi-Arid region. According to Campello, the phenomenon is present in 34,7% of the planet's surface, in an area where approximately 41,3% of the population lives. In Latin America, data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reveal that more than 516 million hectares are affected worldwide. As a result of the process, approximately 24 billion tons of arable and productive soil are lost annually, negatively impacting agricultural production and sustainable development.

Regarding the effects of the long drought caused by the semi-arid climate, José Marengo highlighted Israel's initiative as a successful experience in coping with the lack of rain. "Israel also experiences drought, like the Brazilian semi-arid region, but doesn't have the same problems. There is [agricultural] production year-round. Private sector investments are very strong. There, they have learned to live with drought. A small country, [with a high degree of technology] – ideal for application in Brazil, as is already being used in Petrolina. In the city, there is strong investment in agriculture."

According to a researcher from INPE (National Institute for Space Research), the Sahel region in Africa also has a climate similar to that of the Brazilian Semi-Arid region. Data from the United Nations (UN) shows that the worsening drought situation in the Sahel region already affects 15 million people, including one million children, with food shortages and worsening malnutrition. According to the UN Security Council, the presence of armed terrorist groups, along with chronic poverty and high food prices, makes the problem even more delicate in the African region.

Edited by: Tereza Barbosa