According to Datafolha, only Lula is a threat to Alckmin in São Paulo.
Despite the violence, the governor of São Paulo still stands out as the clear favorite to win in 2014; Workers' Party pre-candidates, such as Alexandre Padilha and José Eduardo Cardozo, still have very low approval ratings; Lula, with 26%, would take the race to a second round; however, in the São Paulo mayoral race, Fernando Haddad started with 2% and won.
247 – Governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) leads the race for the Palácio dos Bandeirantes, according to a survey completed by Datafolha at the end of last week.
Despite the public security crisis, the governor appears with a wide lead in all scenarios analyzed by the institute, even when his opponent is former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). The PT candidate obtains 26% of voting intentions and Alckmin, 42%.
The idea of launching the former president as a candidate for governor came from the PT's marketing strategist, João Santana, but Lula dismissed the possibility.
The president of Fiesp (Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo), Paulo Skaf (PMDB), appears in second place in the scenarios surveyed, with percentages ranging between 13% and 16%.
The Minister of Education, Aloizio Mercadante (PT), who says he has withdrawn from the race, would have 11% of the preferences and would be technically tied with Skaf in second place.
The Minister of Justice, José Eduardo Cardozo, would have 5%, and the Minister of Health, Alexandre Padilha, currently the favorite for the Workers' Party nomination, would have 3%.
Former São Paulo mayor Gilberto Kassab (PSD) receives between 6% and 9% of the mentions.
Datafolha interviewed 1.642 voters in 43 municipalities in the state, last Thursday and Friday.
Review
After two years and five months in office, 52% of São Paulo residents approve of Governor Geraldo Alckmin's (PSDB) administration, according to a Datafolha poll conducted last week.
The rates of "fair" and "bad" or "very bad" fluctuated within the survey's margin of error -- the "fair" rating went from 29% to 31%, and the "bad" rating from 14% to 15%.
Alckmin has higher approval ratings in the interior of the state (60%) than in the state capital (42%). He also fares better among those who have a positive view of Dilma Rousseff's government (60%).
Alckmin's worst performance is observed among voters with higher education (24%) and among those with a monthly family income of five to ten minimum wages (24%). The government's average rating was 6,2 -- in the previous survey, it was 6,4.
Former governor José Serra (PSDB), his predecessor, had a 56% approval rating when he was at the same stage of his administration, four years ago.