Merval: Aécio agrees to compete in PSDB primaries

247 - Presidential candidate Aécio Neves (PSDB/MG) has agreed to compete in the primaries against José Serra. This information was first reported by journalist Merval Pereira, a columnist for Globo. Read below:

The president of the PSDB party, Senator Aécio Neves, will announce in the coming days, probably tomorrow, in a meeting with party leaders, that he accepts to compete in primaries for the formal nomination of the party's candidate for President of the Republic in 2014.

Aécio will emphasize in his speech that he has always been in favor of primaries, a proposal he formally presented to the PSDB in 2009, which was rejected by José Serra, who ended up being the presidential candidate.

The virtual nominee this time, chosen by party consensus, Aécio has been challenged by former governor José Serra, who hints at his willingness to run for president again in 2014, while also leaving the door open to leave the PSDB by the beginning of October, in order to be able to run for another party, probably the PPS.

Aécio's statement will have the potential to create an important political event within the PSDB, removing a strong argument from Serra for leaving the party, while simultaneously making the party environment more relaxed.

That is precisely Aécio's intention; he doesn't want to give Serra any reason to leave the party he now leads, and he continues to believe that his presence is important for party unity during the campaign.

The announcement would also be a way to honor Serra's political history within the PSDB, recognizing his right to seek the nomination, even after having already been a candidate twice.

The former governor has not yet made a decision and is working with several scenarios, including the possibility that in future polls he may appear more firmly ahead of Aécio, improving his relative position within this internal race.

Serra believes his presence in the presidential race will help the opposition and force a second round, but members of the PSDB party believe that such a clear division in São Paulo will only harm the party and could favor other opposition candidates, such as former senator Marina Silva or the governor of Pernambuco, Eduardo Campos.

Holding primaries would have the advantage of placing a commitment among the contenders to support the winner, which would consolidate party unity in São Paulo, essential for a campaign with a chance of victory.

Aécio has control of the party, achieved through numerous internal negotiations, but he needs to win over São Paulo. He has a series of trips already scheduled throughout the state and will be meeting with state representatives in the coming days, in the spirit of solidifying party unity.

Even though he doesn't control party directorates, Serra's resistance to Aécio's candidacy creates obstacles that hinder the natural development of internal negotiations for the campaign.

Both Aécio and Serra are suspicious of each other's intentions. Aécio believes that this talk about the primaries, far more than a legitimate desire to compete for the PSDB nomination, is a search for a pretext to leave the party.

Serra, on the other hand, believes that Aécio only wants to gain control of the PSDB and establish a position in the 2014 election, in order to improve his national exposure and have a better chance in the 2018 election.

Even though he is ahead of Aécio in opinion polls, with ratings around 15%, Serra has experienced a considerable drop compared to his position at the same time in 2009, when he was the favorite with ratings between 35% and 40%.

Aécio, meanwhile, remains more or less at the same level, around 13%, but with a much lower rejection rate than Serra, which would indicate that he has more room to grow. He hopes this will happen after the next television advertising campaign in October.

The combined support for the two candidates would also indicate that the PSDB continues to have a potential vote share of around 30% in the first round, which makes its candidate competitive under any circumstances.

What could make the difference this time is the fact that the opposition pre-candidates – Aécio, Marina, and Eduardo Campos – are closer to each other than in other campaigns, when those defeated in the first round refused to join the PSDB candidate, returning to the bloc supporting Lula or opting for neutrality, as Marina did in 2010, which benefited Dilma's official candidacy.

In party agreements, Aécio Neves' candidacy opens up better prospects for the PSDB in 2014. And for both Marina and Campos, the PSDB's support, should either of them reach the second round, would be fundamental to defeating Dilma.

Merval: Aécio agrees to compete in PSDB primaries.

According to the columnist, the PSDB presidential candidate will make the announcement by tomorrow, and his decision weakens José Serra's position, who is threatening to leave the party.