Inmet: Northeast will have below-average rainfall in 2014.
Hit by a severe drought in the last two years, the Northeast of Brazil may again experience below-average rainfall in 2014. This is the forecast from the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet); according to meteorologist Mozart de Araújo Salvador, the temperature of the North Atlantic, whose rise caused the decrease in rainfall in 2012 and 2013, remains elevated, although at a lower level than last year.
Mariana Branco
Reporter from Agência Brasil
Brasilia – Hit by a severe drought in the last two years, the Northeast may again experience below-average rainfall in 2014. This is the forecast from the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet). According to meteorologist Mozart de Araújo Salvador, the temperature of the North Atlantic, whose rise caused the decrease in rainfall in 2012 and 2013, remains elevated, although at a lower level than last year.
According to Salvador, if the situation remains the same, there is a chance of less rain than usual. However, it is not possible to predict the intensity of a potential new drought period. "The possibility [of drought] is not ruled out," he said.
The meteorologist explained that in December, when Inmet collected the data for its most recent forecast for the Northeast, the temperature of the North Atlantic was 0,5°C to 1°C above average. "It is expected that [the temperature rise] will not intensify, or the risk of damage to rainfall is high," he added.
Salvador explained that last year, the ocean temperature was 1,5°C above average. For rainfall to normalize in the Northeast, ideally it should recede in the coming months. A new measurement will be taken in the second half of January.
For the first quarter of this year, Inmet sees a 40% chance of rainfall being within the average and a 35% probability of it being below average for the semi-arid regions of Ceará, Piauí, Paraíba, Rio Grande do Norte, and northern Bahia. There is also a 25% chance of rainfall being above average.
In 2012 and 2013, rural producers in these and other states lost livestock and crops due to drought and had to be rescued by the government, which made emergency credit lines available and allowed the renegotiation of debts for farmers who were unable to honor payments due to losses from the drought.
For 2014, the Ministry of National Integration reported that it is still awaiting more concrete data regarding the drought situation to define actions. The agency also informed that, so far, there is no decision on renewing credit lines, but that it is possible to join the debt renegotiation program until December 30th of this year.