Geddel maintains lead in the race for governor of Bahia.
Geddel Vieira Lima, a member of the PMDB party, still has a commitment from ACM Neto (DEM) to reciprocate the PMDB's support in the second round of the 2012 Salvador mayoral election; the likely single opposition ticket, headed by the PMDB, already has guaranteed accommodation for the DEM and PSDB parties; as for the government's base, which remains in turmoil, Jaques Wagner needs to manage it masterfully.
Romulo Faro / Bahia 247 While Governor Jaques Wagner (PT) is tasked with the impossible mission of accommodating the main parties in his base to the three slots on the main ticket for his succession in 2014, Geddel Vieira Lima of the PMDB is running rampant in the negotiations to promote his name among the parties opposed to the PT.
Although DEM and PSDB are marking their territory with pre-candidates, the leaders of the opposition are aware, and even admit publicly, that they will only have a chance against Wagner's candidate if they run unopposed in the first round.
In this sense, Geddel's name is gaining traction among those opposed to the PT. The PMDB member is second only to Mayor ACM Neto (DEM) in the polls, who will not be a candidate in 2014.
In addition to the momentum from the polls, Geddel rejoices in the commitment made (and recently reiterated) by ACM to reciprocate the fundamental support of the PMDB in the second round of the 2012 Salvador mayoral race, a contest in which he emerged victorious over the all-powerful Nelson Pelegrino (PT), the candidate of Lula, Dilma, and Wagner.
Led by the PMDB party, with Geddel as its candidate, the opposition ticket is likely to be composed of the current Secretary of Urban Planning and Transportation of Salvador, former federal deputy José Carlos Aleluia, for the Senate; and João Gualberto, a member of the PSDB party and former mayor of Mata de São João, for vice-governor.
The list also includes the name of former governor Paulo Souto, who appears right after Geddel in the polls, but who has no intention of entering the race.
Geddel's marketing team continues, quietly, to conduct a thorough study of the weaknesses of Jaques Wagner's eight years in office, in order to use them as an electoral weapon in 2014.
And Geddel himself has been doing his homework well, traveling throughout the vast state of Bahia from end to end. His efforts will increase soon, with his departure from Caixa Econômica Federal, where he holds the position of vice-president representing the PMDB party in President Dilma Rousseff's government.
Wagner's impossible mission
While the opposition faces a relatively simple arithmetic problem, the government's base remains in turmoil. Jaques Wagner needs to accommodate the PSD of Vice-Governor Otto Alencar; the PP of former Minister of Cities, Deputy Mário Negromonte; and the PDT of the President of the Legislative Assembly, Deputy Marcelo Nillo, within just three positions. These are the parties that have pre-candidates, but there are also allies such as PRB, PCdoB, PR, etc.
In fact, Wagner hasn't even managed to put an end to the internal battle within the PT (Workers' Party). Fighting for the governor's nomination are the former president of Petrobras and current state Planning Secretary (Seplan), José Sérgio Gabrielli; the Chief of Staff, Rui Costa; and Senator Walter Pinheiro.
One less problem for the governor to manage is the pre-candidacy of Senator Lídice da Mata, from the PSB party. With her candidacy practically imposed by the actions of the governor of Pernambuco, Eduardo Campos, who will attempt to be elected president of the Republic, Lídice is already being treated as opposition by the Wagner government.
For now, this is more or less a snapshot of the pre-election race for the government of Bahia.