Funceme releases rainfall forecast today for March-April-May.

Ceará 247 - The meeting of the Ceará State Water Resources Council (CONERH), scheduled for Tuesday morning (21), will have the participation of the president of the Ceará Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources (Funceme), who will announce the rainfall forecast for the March-April-May quarter in the State. The meeting will take place in the auditorium of the Water Resources Management Company (Cogerh), at Rua Adualdo Batista, 1550 - Parque Iracema – Fortaleza.

The president of Funceme will present the probabilities for each of the categories (below average, around average, and above average) regarding the accumulated rainfall in the quarter in question. The presentation will be attended by all representatives of the CONERH member bodies, as well as other authorities. The new forecast will also explain the evolution of ocean and atmospheric conditions in relation to what was analyzed in the previous climate forecast, released on January 18th.

This February has already seen above-average rainfall, and expectations, with the release of forecasts, are that the water situation will improve. In Canindé, for example, the Sousa reservoir, which supplies the city, has already received a recharge volume of about four meters and thirty centimeters, which guarantees the supply for this year, according to the reservoir manager.

The Portal of INPE The National Institute for Space Research (INPE), which analyzes the situation for all of Brazil, presents the rainfall probabilities for the Northeast region for the February, March, and April quarter. According to INPE, based on the "consensus seasonal climate forecast for the February, March, and April 2017 quarter (FMA/2017) for the northern part of the Northeast Region, most global climate indicators and models continue to point to a higher probability of rainfall falling below the normal climatological range, with probability distributions of 25%, 35%, and 40% for the categories above, within, and below the normal climatological range, respectively." 

According to INPE (National Institute for Space Research), considering a scenario where rainfall is between the historical average and 30% below the historical average, the water situation in most reservoirs supplying water in the Northeast Region will not achieve significant recovery during the FMA/2017 quarter (the main part of the semi-arid rainy season), with a marked risk of depletion of stored water between November 2017 and January 2018 for the states of Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, and Paraíba. In this same scenario, a severe impact on agricultural and livestock conditions is projected during the main rainy season, with a predominance of severe drought areas in the interior of the semi-arid region, mainly in eastern Piauí, southern Ceará, western Pernambuco, and north-central Bahia. 

This forecast was prepared by the MCTI's Working Group on Seasonal Climate Forecasting, led by CEMADEN, INPE/CPTEC, INPE/CCST and INPA.