Marina Factor on the Bovespa Stock Exchange

From Infomoney The prospects of a highly contested election were overshadowed by an unprecedented tragedy. Last Wednesday, the PSB presidential candidate, Eduardo Campos, and six other people died in a plane crash in Santos, São Paulo.

The news led to shock and great uncertainty in the financial market about what will happen with the elections after the tragedy. On the day of Campos' death, for example, the Ibovespa index fell by 1,53%, with a volume well above average, with each expert outlining a different post-election scenario. In the heat of the moment, it is still premature to draw a new horizon, but experts are already beginning to comment on the new scenario should Marina Silva enter the race.

As pointed out by the chief strategist of Mizuho Bank in Brazil, Luciano Rostagno, the market is still evaluating the situation, and he emphasizes that it remains to be seen whether his running mate, Marina Silva, will indeed be the new candidate, and whether the PSB will actually choose her.

Speaking at the Steel Congress, the president of the Gerdau board stated: "It was a huge loss; Campos was a young, competent leader." Also at the congress, economist Maílson da Nóbrega, from Tendências, maintained his opinion that the logical outcome is that Marina will replace Campos, and a second-round scenario remains the most likely.

Before Campos' death was confirmed, the chief strategist at XP Investimentos, Celson Plácido, highlighted that, should the most tragic scenario be confirmed, a second round would be less likely, which was attributed as a reason for the stock market's fall. This led Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4) shares, which are more sensitive to the electoral scenario, to register significant losses of 5% today.

The consulting firm Nomura highlighted that, without Campos, and with Marina Silva (until then the vice-presidential candidate on the ticket) running, the chances of a second round increase, which would be negative for the Workers' Party candidate Dilma Rousseff. Campos' death makes Aécio's victory more likely, the consulting firm points out.

Meanwhile, the chief economist at Rosenberg Consultores Associados, Thaís Zara, highlighted that she doesn't foresee many changes in the electoral landscape, still predicting Dilma Rousseff's reelection in the second round. Therefore, the market should await the next electoral polls to understand the true impact of this change on the electoral scenario.

"It's difficult to know now, it's a rather complicated scenario. The cards are shuffled," says the chief economist. According to her, it's also difficult to know if Marina Silva will be the candidate in Campos' place, amidst the conflicts that the then vice-president has with the party.

Carlos Pereira, a postdoctoral fellow in political science at the University of Oxford, stated in an exclusive interview with InfoMoney that if Marina Silva does not run for president of the country in place of Eduardo Campos, who died this Wednesday in a plane crash, she will literally be handing the country over on a silver platter to the current president, Dilma Rousseff.

It is worth noting that, even just hours after Eduardo Campos' death, experts are already trying to outline a new scenario for this year's elections. During the Exame 2014 Forum, held in São Paulo this Wednesday, Christopher Garman, Director of Emerging Markets at Eurasia Group – the world's largest political risk consultancy – commented on what the scenario would look like with a possible candidacy of Marina Silva.

"Even before the candidacies were confirmed, we considered Marina to be the candidate who would pose the greatest risk to Dilma's reelection," Garman points out. According to him, it's still early and the atmosphere is uncertain, but the chance of Marina gaining many votes from currently undecided voters could be a major asset for the potential candidate.