Doubts about Chávez's health heat up the election in Venezuela.
There is even talk of suspending the elections; "We cannot depend on the possibility of the president being a candidate or not (...). The elections will be on October 7th, with or without Hugo Chávez," protested an opposition deputy.
Agency Brazil The prospect of an election in Venezuela without President Hugo Chávez – who is undergoing treatment for pelvic cancer – is a source of controversy in the country six months before the presidential elections.
In a closed meeting with members of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), the governor of the state of Portuguesa, Wilmar Castro Soteldo - appointed by Chávez as coordinator of Measurement and Evaluation for the campaign command - said that there are three possible scenarios for the presidential election in October, among them the possible absence of Chávez as a candidate.
This was the first time a member of the ruling party admitted, at least publicly, that Chávez might not be the Chavista candidate to contest the elections against the center-right candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski, representing the opposition coalition.
"Chávez has cancer, and any conflict could unfold in three scenarios: Chávez weakened, no Chávez, or no elections," Castro Soteldo stated, according to local press.
The possibility of suspending the elections was mentioned, according to him, in the context of an alleged "conflict" generated by the opposition. The "chaos," he said, could lead to the suspension of the electoral process. This hypothesis of a "social crisis" provoked by the opposition before the elections is reiterated by different members of the government.
Representatives of the opposition coalition rejected the accusations and called on the PSUV to respect the election date. "We cannot depend on whether or not the president is a candidate (...). The elections will be on October 7th, with or without Hugo Chávez as a candidate," said opposition deputy Juan Carlos Caldera.
The head of government of Caracas, Jacqueline Faría, said that Soteldo's statements were misinterpreted and denied that the PSUV is putting together an alternative candidacy to Chávez's. The only plan is a "resounding victory (with Chávez)" in the October elections, Faría said at a public event.
According to public opinion expert Ivan Abreu, from the Central University of Venezuela, a Chavista candidate alternative to Chávez alters the entire electoral landscape. In his view, despite the wear and tear of 13 years in power and his personalistic style, "Chávez is the only leader of the so-called revolutionary process and is the candidate with the greatest charisma and appeal," he said.
"Capriles Radonski is seen as a more 'managerial' candidate, but not as a leader who draws masses," he observed.
If Chávez stays out of the race, the opposition would likely increase its chances. However, this does not represent an "automatic" anti-Chávez victory, warns political analyst Carlos Romero of the Central University of Venezuela.
The power struggle between the different Chavista factions – which oscillate between the right and the left – will likely be decided by Chávez himself. If he is prevented from running for president – a possibility denied by the president himself, who reiterates his candidacy at every public appearance – he will have to choose a successor.
The 57-year-old president's public reappearance is eagerly awaited. He returned from Havana in the early hours of Thursday (26), where he spent 11 days undergoing radiotherapy treatment. He has not been seen in public since then.
With information from BBC Brasil