Money protected, in any scenario.

Luciane Macedo _247 - The Brazilian Treasury Direct program, which allows the purchase of federal government bonds online, closed May with record demand for inflation-linked post-fixed bonds. The NTN-B Principal accounted for 70,8% of sales, the highest volume since the program's creation ten years ago. This bond, which pays interest based on the variation of the IPCA (National Consumer Price Index) plus a pre-fixed component determined by the interest rate, was also the bond with the best gross return in the month: 4,99% for bonds maturing in 2035. Year-to-date, as of June 22, the return on this bond is 21,33%, and over the last 12 months, it jumps to 32,90%. In times of expectations of lower interest rates and unattractive real returns on fixed-income investments, the numbers for the NTN-B Principal stand out as the dream investment of any investor.

But it's good to remember that the prices of all Treasury Direct bonds can vary over time. The bonds are marked to market, and the investor's statement will reflect these variations: if prices fall, the investor's balance also decreases, and vice versa. Holding the bond until maturity guarantees the gross return agreed upon at the time of purchase, so it's important that the investor respects their profile, objectives, and timeframes before buying Treasury Direct bonds. And who knows what will happen in 20 years or more? Not surprisingly, the most attractive returns are in the long term, as investors are willing to take on more risk given the uncertainty of the scenario.

"Investing in government bonds is always a good hedge in any scenario," comments Professor Elisson de Andrade, PhD in Applied Economics and speaker on personal finance. "As long as you protect yourself by diversifying your bond investments," he emphasizes. "The hard part is knowing what the long-term scenario will be. So, the shorter the maturity of a bond, the lower the uncertainty and volatility, and vice versa."

According to the professor, "there's a misconception that investing in inflation-linked bonds is less risky." In terms of investment profile, NTN-B bonds fall somewhere between the most and least conservative investors. While they offer real returns, the bond price fluctuates according to inflation expectations. Early sale can guarantee a lower return, but also a higher return than previously stipulated at the time of purchase. With cuts in the basic interest rate, those who bought NTN-B bonds with the Selic rate at 12% a year ago saw a capital gain due to the pricing differences in the bonds. "Today you have fantastic returns on any NTN-B, and many are thinking about selling these bonds before maturity to take advantage of the gains," comments Andrade.

For those who prefer to take fewer risks regarding future uncertainties, post-fixed and Selic-linked bonds have a more conservative profile and are the most recommended, indicates Andrade. "With LFTs (Treasury Bills), you buy and accept the market interest rate; it's like a savings account, you always guarantee what the market is paying," explains the professor. "If inflation rises and the government increases the interest rate to control inflation, you are also protected."

Fixed-rate bonds are the least conservative, since the return is nominal and the investor is subject to loss of purchasing power in case of high inflation. On the other hand, if the scenario of controlled inflation and low Selic rates is confirmed, long-term fixed-rate bonds tend to guarantee good returns. But the investor carries the risk of uncertainty, of not knowing if the government may raise the basic interest rate of the economy again.

In addition to diversifying securities to mitigate market risks, it is recommended that investors do not concentrate all their fixed-income investments in Treasury Direct, despite the more attractive returns, and maintain a small reserve in savings, so as not to run the risk of having to sell their securities with potential losses if they need the money before the maturity dates.

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