Crisis grips forecast GDP falls to 3%
A survey conducted by the Central Bank among market agents registered a further drop in expectations for economic growth in 2012; the government is studying measures to encourage the purchase of vehicles and construction materials; if the crisis abroad worsens, the risk of recession is already on Brazil's radar.
Kelly OliveiraReporter for Agência Brasil, Brasilia - Financial market analysts consulted by the Central Bank (BC) expect the economy to grow less than previously predicted. The estimate for the expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the sum of all products and services produced in the country, fell from 3,2% to 3,09% this year.
Released last Friday (18), the Central Bank's Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) indicated that the Brazilian economy lost its growth rate.In the first quarter of this year, the index grew 0,15% compared to the period from October to December of last year. This expansion was smaller than that seen from the third to the fourth quarter of last year, which was almost 0,2%.
The Central Bank's survey of financial market analysts also shows that the forecast for industrial production growth has decreased from 1,94% to 1,58% this year, and from 3,95% to 4,2% in 2013.
The projection for the ratio between net public sector debt and GDP was adjusted from 36% to 35,9% in 2012, and for the following year it changed from 34,6% to 34,5%. The expectation for the dollar exchange rate at the end of the year was maintained at R$ 1,85 for both 2012 and 2013.
The forecast for the trade surplus (positive balance of exports minus imports) was adjusted from US$19,22 billion to US$20 billion in 2012, and from US$14,9 billion to US$15 billion next year.
For the current account deficit (a record of Brazil's transactions involving the purchase and sale of goods and services with other countries), the estimate increased from US$68,2 billion to US$68 billion this year, and from US$73,5 billion to US$72,14 billion in 2013.
Expectations for foreign direct investment (resources that go to the country's productive sector) increased from 55,74% to 55% this year, and from 57,05% to 58,35% in 2013.