2014 is now: the scenario for the state succession.
Perillo practically launched his candidacy at the end of 2012, prompting an early debate and political maneuvering; the PMDB finds itself held hostage by Iris, who is preserving her image and not ruling out a candidacy; the PT is starting to send messages to the PMDB and has Paulo Garcia and Gomide as strong candidates; Vanderlan and Caiado are trying to revitalize a third option, and José Batista Júnior is convinced he will be a candidate and will likely run independently with his PSB.
Goiás 247_ It's 2013, but in Goiás, and especially in the capital, the topic dominating political circles and behind-the-scenes discussions is the 2014 election. The Federal Police's Operation Monte Carlo, which led to the departure of top aides to Governor Marconi Perillo, has brought the debate forward.
The opposition saw the crisis as the ideal opportunity to bury a possible reelection of Perillo. However, in practice, they failed to exhaust the governor. Even weakened, the politician escaped the final report of the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry and, in the second half of 2012, launched a positive agenda that practically launched his candidacy for 2014.
There is no shortage of adversaries trying to unseat Perillo. It remains to be seen how they will act – whether as a group or on a every-man-for-himself basis. Goiás 247 shows the current situation and prospects of the main contenders for the governorship:
Marconi PerilloHe is a strong candidate for 2014, and only a very serious unforeseen event would remove the incumbent from the race. Perillo has the unwavering support of his entire allied base and is betting on a 2013 focused on public works and road repairs to arrive in 2014 with a more impressive government. Internal polls already show a recovery in his popularity. One of his trump cards could be to address the needs of public servants – for example, by giving a salary increase to the Military Police, a long-standing demand of the category. Today, the governor's main source of criticism is related to the roads. The opposition has been heavily criticizing the conditions of Goiás' highways, and according to the Rodovida schedule, about half of the 4 km of roads planned still need to be repaired.
Iris RezendeThe great PMDB leader is always in the running. Even if he doesn't appear, Iris is the mastermind behind the PMDB in Goiás. If he wants to be a candidate, no one can stop him. One of the challenges is his health. In the past, Iris underwent successive surgeries to correct a spinal problem and still does physiotherapy. Some say that if he is in good health, he will be a candidate again, even at 80 years old.
Paulo GarciaThe mayor rose through the ranks within the PT (Workers' Party) and came under the watchful eye of Iris's PMDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party) after winning the election in the first round last year. Allies say that Paulo Garcia may indeed be a candidate, but first he will have to overcome bottlenecks in the city hall, such as the stalled Macambira-Anicuns and Av. Araguaia projects and the health crisis. If he arrives in early 2014 with high approval ratings, he may seek the support of his political godfather Iris and even try to obtain the blessing of President Dilma Rousseff (PT). Since the end of 2012, Paulo has frequently clashed with the state government, showing that 2014 is just around the corner.
Antonio GomideThe mayor of Anápolis (PT) says that the PMDB has priority for the top spot on the ticket, and if it's someone from the PT, it has to be Paulo Garcia. However, some doubt Gomide's humility. In past PT events, he was even treated as a pre-candidate. The mayor won the 2012 election with ease, and for allies, he is the only one who can symbolize the much-desired figure of "newness": without any baggage, a well-regarded administrator of a large city, with Dilma's blessing and that push from his brother Rubens Otoni – all that's missing is an agreement with Paulo Garcia.
Vanderlan CardosoThe former mayor of Senador Canedo left the PMDB party through the back door. He lacked prominence and realized it was better to go it alone. He will join the PSC party and, along with Ronaldo Caiado and Jorcelino Braga, try to pave the way for a "third way." Vanderlan is no longer the novelty of 2010 and would have to devise a different strategy to convince voters. What is certain for now is that either he or Caiado will be in the race for the Palácio das Esmeraldas (Governor's Palace). Vanderlan doesn't overtly oppose Perillo. He occasionally appears and criticizes the state government, then spends a period away from the spotlight. Allies say that the criticism will intensify starting in March.
José Batista JúniorThe billionaire businessman was once courted by the PMDB party and then distanced himself. Recently, he was reportedly invited by Vanderlan to join the third-party coalition, but Caiada didn't like the idea. What is known is that José Batista claims to be convinced he will be a candidate for governor in 2014 – even if he runs alone with his PSB party. His economic power is overshadowed by his lack of political experience, but the businessman is betting on an innovative management model inspired by the private sector to win over voters in Goiás.
Daniel VilelaThe PMDB congressman and son of Mayor Maguito Vilela is seen as a breath of fresh air within the party. Young, from a family with a long political tradition, and accustomed to opposing the government in the Legislative Assembly, Daniel would be the ideal candidate to defeat Perillo. What weighs against the congressman is the strength of the old guard within the party.