"Brazil is not an immediate target, but it is in Trump's sights," warns Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr.

247 - In an interview with journalist Leonardo Attuch, editor of TV 247, economist Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr. analyzed the escalation of the United States' offensive in Latin America and stated that Brazil "is not the immediate target, but is in the sights" of President Donald Trump. The conversation, conducted by Leonardo Attuch, also addressed the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the rise of imperialism, the use of deep fakes as a political weapon, and the Brazilian electoral scenario for 2026.

Right at the beginning, Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr. drew attention to a phenomenon he considers explosive: the proliferation of fake videos produced by artificial intelligence, which have used his image and voice to spread fabricated messages with an appearance of authenticity. “I’m quite worried, Leo, because some of these videos are very well made, they imitate my voice and use authentic videos of mine… they superimpose a voice with a completely fabricated message,” he stated. According to him, the fakes follow a pattern: they repeat ideas that “in very general terms are coincident,” but with “monumental exaggerations,” caricatures, and sensationalism, which threatens his professional credibility.

The economist reported that he has already identified “more than 30 fake accounts” circulating and said that, so far, the platforms have not taken effective action. “So far YouTube has only registered the complaint… but no action has been taken yet,” he stated. He warned of the direct impact of this type of operation on electoral processes, especially in next year's Brazilian elections: “Can you imagine, Leo, what will happen next year in the Brazilian elections?”

Maduro's kidnapping and the breakdown of the "peace zone"

The central point of the interview, however, was the operation described by both as a kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the United States. Attuch classified the episode as a historical landmark: “Until the other day he was president of the Republic of a sovereign country and today he is a prisoner kidnapped by the United States.” For Paulo, it is a “totally illegal” aggression and a dangerous leap in Washington's strategy to politically recolonize the continent.

The economist assessed that South America had been treated as a "zone of peace," but that the action against Venezuela changes the level of the regional conflict. "It is clear to me that with this action in Venezuela... the United States has other plans for South America that do not necessarily involve peace," he said.

Paulo also stated that the intervention was anticipated by the National Security Strategy released in early December, a document in which, according to him, the "Western Hemisphere"—including all of Latin America—is treated as an area where the US seeks to ensure its "preeminence." "That was the word used repeatedly… when the document referred to the Western Hemisphere," he emphasized.

"Brazil is not out of the spotlight"

Although Paulo does not see direct military intervention in Brazil as something "on the visible horizon," he states that Washington tends to act through political and informational means, seeking to defeat governments that represent some degree of resistance. "In the case of Brazil... what will the Americans try to do?... defeat Lula in the October elections," he said, projecting the 2026 election as a priority target.

It was at this point that he summarized the central warning of the interview: "The Lula government is not foolish, nor will it think that we are out of the crosshairs, even if we are not the immediate target of the American offensive in the Western Hemisphere."

According to the economist, the pressure on Brazil could intensify through various channels: digital platforms, big tech companies, political campaigns, information warfare, and international interference. He directly cited the power of these companies in the geopolitical landscape: "These platforms... are extremely powerful, the big tech companies, they will side with the Brazilian right."

"I never criticized Lula": internal cohesion and national defense

In a key moment of the conversation, Paulo stated that, given the current scenario, he believes the country should rally behind President Lula and his diplomatic team. He summarized this repositioning with a phrase that became one of the central themes of the interview: "My new motto is: 'Lula, I never criticized him'."

He then explained the idea: “It seems to be the time to… fully trust President Lula, Mauro Vieira, Celso Amorim… and avoid criticism for this or that, because I think the scenario is very delicate, very dangerous.”

Paulo's assessment is that a defeat for President Lula in 2026 could pave the way for a government aligned with Trumpism—and he described the consequences as potentially devastating. "It could mean an unprecedented loss of national autonomy… it could mean an unprecedented attack on Brazilian democracy… curtailment of freedom of expression… persecution of people."

He was explicit: "I'm already preparing to make my very modest contribution next year, fighting vote by vote to ensure Lula's re-election."

The US agenda: natural resources and subordination.

Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr. rejected the idea that the US currently offers any development project for Latin America. For him, the current logic is one of plunder and open domination. "They offer nothing positive... What the Americans offer us is a framework of subordination," he stated.

When discussing what might be behind the offensive, he added a central element: the dispute over strategic natural resources. "Access to natural resources, oil, gas, critical minerals, rare earths," he listed. And he concluded: "They are concerned with... dominating."

According to Paulo, the most dangerous change is that, with Trump, imperialism no longer hides its objectives. "Until recently, imperialism sought to wear masks... And Trump doesn't believe in hypocrisy," he said, pointing out that this could broaden global resistance, but also makes the action more aggressive and direct.

Attuch reinforced this interpretation when evaluating the model desired by the US for the region: "I see a mix of Milei and Bukele... total surrender, privatizations and... a lot of internal repression."

Europe “is not a counterpoint”: submission and geopolitical illusion.

Another strong point of the interview was Paulo's criticism of the European stance towards Trump. He said he was negatively surprised by the "very weak" reaction from traditional US allies. "The Americans steamrolled them... and the reaction was so weak that it tipped the balance in Trump's favor."

And he went further: "Europe is an illusion from a geopolitical point of view... It doesn't function as a counterpoint to anything."

"Law of the jungle" and the debate on defense

In an even more serious tone, Paulo stated that the world is experiencing a profound breakdown in international law. "All respect for international law is gone... It's the law of the jungle," he declared. And, in this context, he criticized the dismantling of Brazil's defense capabilities over the last few decades. "Since the 80s, we have committed a glaring error, which was to denuclearize Brazil... Brazil has not worked on its national defense adequately."

He argued that the country needs to regain its deterrent power. "Arming Brazil... so that it has deterrent power, making it feel that if anyone wants to invade national territory... they will pay a price."

Paulo also questioned the indoctrination of military sectors, technological dependence, and the need to revise military schools. "There was... tremendous indoctrination... they were given a Western Hemisphere perspective... an excessive respect for the United States."

China and the economy: interdependence and limits of American pressure.

Speaking about China, Paulo acknowledged that the US's motivation includes containing Chinese economic growth in Latin America. "China is gaining ground... economically and possibly strategically as well," he stated.

Still, he doesn't believe Brazil can easily decouple from China, given the weight of agribusiness and the mining sector. "Brazil... has developed... a very strong economic link," he said.

He also pointed out a sensitive issue: Brazil's international reserves, concentrated in dollars. "About 80, 85% of Brazil's reserves are in dollars... we have to protect ourselves... and diversify our reserves," he argued, criticizing the Central Bank's delay in buying gold.

The risk of normalizing violence and the role of alternative communication.

The interview also reflected on the ideological dispute in Brazil and the fragility of a society subjected to the control of large media conglomerates and platforms. Paulo stated that without alternative channels there would be no real public debate. "If it weren't for these alternative channels like yours... there would be no public debate in Brazil," he declared, also citing the relevance of social movements like the MST (Landless Workers' Movement).

In closing, Paulo returned to his most dramatic diagnosis: the world has entered a phase of "hyper-imperialism," and Brazil needs to understand the magnitude of the risk. "It's an unprecedented challenge... in terms of the risks the country faces regarding its sovereignty."

An election that could define the country's future.

Throughout the conversation, the economist made it clear that, for him, 2026 will be a watershed year. With the rise of imperialism, the weakening of international law, and the normalization of geopolitical violence, Brazil could become the target of increasing pressure if it fails to preserve its political autonomy and capacity for self-defense.

The warning that titles the interview summarizes the line of reasoning: Brazil may not be President Donald Trump's immediate target, but it is already in Washington's strategic field of vision — and the struggle for the country's future will necessarily involve a clash between sovereignty and subordination.