Breno Altman: "Vladimir Putin got a complete shave"
A journalist claims that Russia's positions prevailed at the Alaska summit and that an agreement will require territorial concessions from Ukraine and neutrality within NATO.
247 - Breno Altman assessed that Russia emerged victorious from the meeting in Alaska and that negotiations to end the war in Ukraine will proceed according to the terms presented by Moscow. In his words, "Vladimir Putin got the whole package." These statements were made on the program Bom Dia, where Altman focused his analysis on the political and diplomatic outcome of the dialogue between international leaders and its implications for a possible peace agreement.
According to the journalist, "Russia emerged victorious at the Alaska summit because Russian arguments prevailed." He organized this "victory" along two axes: "What are the two main Russian arguments? The first argument is that there will only be peace if Russian territorial claims are accepted. And [...] that Ukraine remains a neutral state, that is, that it does not join NATO." The second is procedural: "The second Russian argument is to reject the idea of a ceasefire for negotiation [...] Negotiations are conducted in combat."
What's on the table, according to Altman
Altman argues that, given the battlefield and the balance of power, "whoever pays to see will witness Russia advancing into Ukrainian territory." For him, this pushes Kiev and its allies to accept a package that combines territorial concessions with Ukrainian military neutrality, leaving a ceasefire only as the final step in a peace agreement.
Commenting on the military dimension as a cornerstone of diplomacy, he quoted Vyacheslav Molotov: "There is no better weapon in diplomacy than the army." In the journalist's view, "Russia has proven that it has an army, a powerful army, despite the mistakes made, especially in the initial stages of the war." He describes an operational repositioning: Russia "is advancing slowly, but it is advancing on Ukrainian territory, and this will force a solution favorable to Russia.".
Internal pressures in the US and the role of Donald Trump
For Altman, American domestic politics are crucial: “The United States, under Donald Trump, has fundamentally yielded to Russian demands,” because the president seeks to present a quick resolution to the conflict to the electorate: “He wants to be able to go to the American public and say: ‘This absurd war is an invention of the Democrats and I, I was the one who ended this war’”. Altman also highlighted the asymmetry in personal treatment: “Donald Trump respects Russia and respects Putin” and recounted a symbolic moment of the meeting: “The next meeting in Moscow, not Trump”.
Expected repercussions for Kyiv and Europe
Following talks with Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders, Altman projects an imposition of terms: “Trump will impose a position that the war is over and that Ukraine has to accept an agreement on the general terms that Russia proposed and negotiate details.” Without the support of the United States, he says, “the European Union cannot sustain the Ukrainian war effort.” The assessment includes the domestic scenario in Kiev: “Zelensky’s internal situation is very delicate,” with protests and accumulated wear and tear. Watch:
