No rationing
In 2013, the electricity sector is expected to break two records: the highest generation capacity and the largest extension of installed networks in a single year in Brazil.
There is no reason to fear a shortage of electricity in the country. After all, the current state of structural balance in the electrical system was achieved with the resumption of planning, starting with the implementation of the New Model in 2004. Let's look at the facts.
At the end of 2011, the National Interconnected System (SIN) exceeded 105 MW installed capacity, comprised of hydroelectric (77%), thermoelectric, and alternative sources. That year, the average load served was 56.000 MW. This means sufficient generation capacity to meet market needs.
For most of the year we produce energy from water, without consuming fuel. This is a great advantage we have over other countries. In times of low water levels, we activate thermal power plants, which are more expensive to operate because they run on fossil fuels.
However, there's no such thing as a free lunch. You can't simultaneously want security of supply, hydroelectric plants without reservoirs, and, in addition, not pay for dispatching thermal power plants when necessary.
From 2001 to 2011, more than 11.200 MW of conventional thermal power plants were installed in the SIN (not including nuclear and biomass). An increase of 223%!
In the past, a lack of planning led to rationing in 2001 precisely because there were not enough thermal power plants (and other sources) to meet demand when there was insufficient water.
Of the installed capacity in 2001, conventional thermal power plants represented 7%; in 2011, this percentage exceeded 15%. The "rush" of 2001 led to the untimely, short-term rental of expensive and polluting emergency thermal power plants, powered by diesel and fuel oil.
Under the new model, thermal power plants began to be auctioned off through long-term contracts with lower costs.
In transmission, installed capacity grew by 55% between 2001 and 2011. On average, 4.000 km of lines were built per year, compared to an annual average of only 1.000 km before 2001.
Furthermore, in 2001 there was surplus energy in the Southern Region of the country. Due to a lack of planning and investment in transmission, this energy could not be sent to the Southeast. Since then, the capacity for energy exchange between the South and Southeast has increased by 80%, and the transfer limits to the Northeast have expanded 2,5 times.
In 2013, the sector is expected to break two records: the highest generation capacity and the largest extension of installed networks in a single year in Brazil. By the end of December, the incorporation of 9.000 MW of new generation capacity and more than 8.000 km of transmission lines is planned.
Since 2004, planning in the electricity sector has indeed been responsible for the growth in generation capacity, the increase in thermoelectric power, the strong integration of biomass and wind energy into the Brazilian energy matrix, the expansion of transmission, and the adequate fulfillment of additional consumption. In short, it has contributed to the structural balance of the market and the sustainability of the electricity matrix.