Reuters: Tension caused by Bolsonaro will last for weeks.
The political environment remains tense and will need time to calm down, provided there are no further upheavals in the relationship between the Executive and Legislative branches and the government strives to improve coordination, according to parliamentarians interviewed by Reuters; chaos in government coordination caused the stock market to plummet and the dollar to soar.
BRASILIA (Reuters) - The political environment remains tense and will need time to calm down, provided there are no further setbacks in the relationship between the Executive and Legislative branches, and that the government strives to improve coordination, according to lawmakers.
Personified by the President of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro, and the Speaker of the House, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), who have been publicly exchanging barbs in recent days, the political crisis had new chapters this Wednesday, spilling over into the Senate and potentially compromising the progress of the pension reform, as well as providing room for the approval of measures unfavorable to the government.
According to an important leader in Congress, it will take another ten days, or two weeks, for the dust to truly settle, provided the government fills the vacuum left in the political maneuvering. This is also the perception of the Chief of Staff's office. According to this source, and also according to another parliamentarian consulted, some retaliatory actions are not ruled out until the situation calms down.
One of them mentions the possibility of voting on matters related to the Kandir Law. According to this parliamentarian, the approval of the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) the day before, making the execution of collective amendments in the Union Budget mandatory, was a message and not exactly retaliation.
Another source reports that the opportunity was used to deliver a message that had long bothered parliamentarians: once mandatory, the amendments would cease to fuel the narrative that they were part of a "quid pro quo" scheme.
This leadership also reports that the deputies' desire was to cancel the presidential decree that waives the visa requirement for tourists from the United States, Canada, Australia, and Japan. However, the Speaker of the House reportedly blocked the idea.
According to this same congressman, the atmosphere in the Senate is not much different—the House is expected to vote on the constitutional amendment regarding mandatory budget amendments next week.
According to him, the environment will improve if the government helps and stops "pushing" all the responsibility—and the burden—of the pension reform onto Congress. He believes Maia, until now the main architect of the reform, will act within the limits of his responsibilities: appointing a rapporteur designated by the government and committing to scheduling the matter only when it has enough votes to be approved. Nothing more than that.
Another leader suggests that, as a further demonstration of Congressional dissatisfaction, measures could be adopted to limit the issuance of provisional measures by the Executive Branch.
Another member of parliament who is familiar with how the House works is more optimistic, believing that there will be no so-called "bomb agenda" and that the situation will return to normal, provided the government does not create a new controversy.
According to one source, the solution for the government will be to intensify its dialogue, set aside the electoral rhetoric about "old politics," give prestige to the deputies, and, in some cases, verify what the parliamentarians' demands are regarding positions and amendments. It will be up to the government to calculate the cost-benefit of this.
BITE AND BLOW
One of the parliamentarians consulted by Reuters believes that, like in a children's fight, in the political crisis everyone has already had their chance to fight and everyone has already been hit. Each one won their round and it would be time to turn the page.
And that was the expectation until Bolsonaro's interview with TV Bandeirantes on Wednesday afternoon. During the interview, the President demanded accountability from Maia and said he was "shaken by personal issues," a possible reference to Moreira Franco, the stepfather of the Speaker of the House's wife, who was arrested last week and subsequently released.
In the same interview, Bolsonaro stated that, as far as he is concerned, he has no quarrels with anyone.
In response, the Speaker of the House stated that "Brazilians are shaken, having waited since January 1st for the government to start functioning" while Bolsonaro "plays" at being president of Brazil.
In the same interview, however, the Speaker of the House praised the Minister of Justice and Public Security, Sérgio Moro, a figure who last week was the target of harsh criticism from Maia for identifying interference by the Executive branch member in Congress.
Commenting on the summons of the minister to a committee on participatory legislation in the House, Maia said that his inclination is to reverse it, considering that this would not be the prerogative of the collegiate body.
He also made it clear that the minister—whom he referred to in a moment of irritation as an "employee" of Bolsonaro—has been attending hearings in Congress, a reason that would eliminate the need for a summons.
In another move, earlier, Maia gave his approval to Senator Eliziane Gama (PPS-MA) to present in the Senate a text identical to the one delivered by Moro to the Chamber of Deputies. This way, the senators could move forward with the project while the deputies focus on the pension reform.
The Speaker of the House had suspended, last week, the processing of proposals from the anti-crime package prepared by the minister, so that a working group could analyze the measure along with related projects already under consideration in the House.
Later that evening, Bolsonaro said he "regretted" Maia's statements and showed irritation with the words chosen by the Speaker of the House.
"Joking?", he questioned. "There's no joking on my part, quite the opposite. I regret those words. I don't even want to believe he said that."
In response, immediately after the Chamber session ended, Maia said he would no longer respond to the "criticisms" and "attacks" from the president and his allies. He also appealed to Bolsonaro and his entourage to stop the attacks.
"I promise that I will let the president get to work. So from now on I will not respond to any more jokes, any insinuations, nothing, because we need him to work," Maia told reporters as he left the Chamber.
"We will govern, I will govern the Chamber and he will govern the country."