Forecast for 2014: Economist will play against

By Flávio Aguiar, from Major Card

Let's start with the anniversaries: in 2014, in addition to the 50th anniversary of the 1964 coup, we commemorate (!) the centenary of the beginning of the First World War, which, proportionally, caused more changes in the geopolitical map of Europe than the Second.

The fiftieth anniversary of the April 1st coup will be motivating many meetings and debates around the world. Here in Germany, the series begins in March and is only expected to end in November. In addition to the coup itself, there will also be discussions surrounding Operation Condor – a topic now revived by the exhumation of the remains of President João Goulart, for examinations in search of possible evidence that he was assassinated.

Also in 2014, the 70th anniversary of the July 20, 1944, assassination attempt against Adolf Hitler was celebrated. The assassination failed, leaving in its wake hundreds of prisoners, tried, convicted, and executed with extreme cruelty, mostly aristocrats, diplomats, and high-ranking officers of the German Armed Forces, among them Count von Stauffenberg, who placed the bomb in Hitler's bunker, and Admiral Wilhelm Canaris, who was none other than the Head of the Secret Service, of Espionage, Counter-espionage, and Sabotage, the "Abwehr," of the Nazi Army. The repression extended to Austria and France, bringing the number of detainees to the thousands. The executions of those convicted or involved, even without trial, continued until the last weeks of April 1945, when the Red Army was already fighting inside Berlin.
 
Boitempo Editorial will publish, in 2014, the book "Berlin Diaries: 1940 – 1945", by the Russian princess Marie Vassiltchikov, considered to this day the closest account of the conspiracy and its consequences, written by a witness who closely followed the events and the fate of the conspirators, in addition to describing life in the German capital and its surroundings during the war.

Brazil will be under scrutiny from the world media, thanks to the World Cup and the election next October, when President Dilma Rousseff will seek another term. The World Cup itself is already a central news topic.
 
But there will be a thorough review to address the expected dissenting opinions.
 
There is an international campaign against the Dilma government – ​​led by the two vestals of neoliberalism, The Economist and the Financial Times, but with resonance in many other media outlets, including some considered progressive, such as The Guardian, or more centrist than right-wing, such as the New York Times. Suddenly it has become "fashionable" to speak ill of Brazil, even more so with the local encouragement of a national bourgeoisie and an old middle class that sees the encampment of its previously privileged territory invaded by a "horde" promoted by the social and inclusion policies of "Lulopetismo" (Lula's Workers' Party), by our old oligarchic and provincial media, and also by a new wave of intellectuals who think that speaking ill of Brazil to foreign audiences is a good look. Another spearhead of this campaign will possibly be the downgrading of Brazil's credit rating by agencies that assess the financial security of countries for the purpose of granting credit.

In Europe, in addition to the ongoing austerity measures, which will continue to claim victims and are altering the continent's identity landscape, attention will turn to the election of the new European Parliament in May. An advance by the far-right is expected, as they intend to form a bloc in the plenary. To do so, they will need to elect at least 25 MEPs in at least 10 countries. The far-right will mobilize xenophobia against "Islamic terrorism," but above all against immigrants, legal or illegal. It is very likely that their most notable growth will occur in France.

Still in Europe, another central theme will be the power struggle involving Ukraine, the European Union, and Russia. So far, despite the wave of demonstrations, especially in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, the Russian government has been winning, managing to bring the Ukrainian government back into its sphere of influence. The European Union is in an unfavorable position because, although large segments of the Ukrainian middle class identify with it, what it has to offer is relatively little help, high interest rates, and cuts in rights, as has been happening in the peripheral countries of the so-called "southern Europe." The issue of immigration is expected to polarize debates in the Old Continent. In Germany, for example, the leader of the CSU, which is part of the new German government, has already expressed support for the country preventing the immigration of "poor" people. There are also debates on this subject in the British government.
 
In most of Europe, when the subject is discussed, the main targets are clear: North and South Africans of all types, Turks, Bulgarians, and Roma or Sinti (Gypsies).

Russia is expected to continue its leading role from 2013, when it emerged from its own ashes as a power – now not only militarily, nuclearly, or economically – but also diplomatically, forcing some spectacular moves on the world stage. Russian action opened the door to the possibility of a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear program, which, in turn, had repercussions on the Syrian issue. Negotiations on Syria are expected to begin in Geneva in January. For now, the sides are vying for conditions: Bashar al-Assad demands an end to "foreign interference"; the rebels expect his resignation or downfall, but the fact is that all sides are closer to the negotiating table than before.

Before the FIFA World Cup in Brazil, the Winter Olympic Games will be held in Sochi, Russia. The attacks in Volgograd (formerly the legendary Stalingrad of World War II), killing 16 people at the train station (the number may rise, as many are seriously injured) and another 10 on a trolleybus, at the end of this year, exposed the risks faced by the games in a region marked by separatist movements in Chechnya and Dagestan – distant motivations for the Boston Marathon bombing.

In the United States, the battle to establish the new public health system known as Obamacare will continue. The Tea Party is announcing a new strategy, seeking to "popularize" themes such as "controlling" public spending, lowering taxes, etc. Since the clashes over the government budget and the authorization to raise the federal debt ceiling, the movement has been on the defensive, both externally and within the Republican Party.

France will continue its program of becoming, on a large scale, the policing power in regions that were once under its colonial rule, alongside NATO in the north of the continent. There is also the possibility of negotiations to end the civil war in South Sudan, a new country that evangelical conservatism lauded as a bastion of Christianity against the burgeoning Islamism of Sudan, and which is now immersed in a bloody conflict between political factions, led by President Salva Kiir and former Vice-President Riek Machar. The conflict also has ethnic connotations, with the former leading the Dinka majority and the latter the Nuer minority, and could spread to neighboring countries such as Uganda, Kenya, the already troubled Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tanzania.

In Asia, attention is expected to be focused on the depth of the internal conflict in North Korea, which provoked Kim Jong-ju's radical action of ordering the execution of his own uncle, accused of plotting a coup against him. Attention will also be focused on the conflict surrounding the Senkaku Islands (in Japanese) or Diaoyu Islands (in Mandarin), involving China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

In Latin America, there is speculation, though without much hope, about the meaning of the enigmatic handshake between Barack Obama and Raul Castro at Mandela's funeral. Chile will possibly be moving closer to Mercosur and further away from the so-called "Pacific Bloc." With the reintegration of Paraguay and the full recognition of Venezuela's entry, Mercosur will emerge stronger. China will continue to increase its presence in the region. By 2017, Chinese investments are expected to reach $400 billion annually.

In addition to the Brazilian election, there will be a series of elections around the world. The complete list can be found here: http://www.ndi.org/electionscalendar .

Highlights: the constitutional referendum in Egypt, with national elections at the end of the year, including for president. El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Colombia, in the latter case for Parliament. National elections in Uruguay, India, Turkey, and Tunisia. National elections are scheduled for February in Thailand, where a series of right-wing protests have been attempting to oust Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, accused, among other things, of "populism" and "corruption."

Pope Francis I will continue his crusade to try to recover the Catholic Church after the devastation of its reputation in recent years, while the world continues to debate Edward Snowden's revelations about US NSA spying.