The market is once again lowering its growth forecast for the country.
This time, the estimate from financial institutions consulted weekly by the Central Bank for GDP growth fell from 1,16% to 1,10%. For 2015, the estimate, which has been falling for six consecutive weeks, dropped from 1,6% to 1,5%.
Kelly Oliveira – Reporter for Agência Brasil
Financial institutions surveyed weekly by the Central Bank (BC) have reduced their projection for economic growth this year for the fifth consecutive week. This time, the estimate for the expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the sum of all goods and services produced in the country, fell from 1,16% to 1,10%. For 2015, the estimate, which has been falling for six consecutive weeks, dropped from 1,6% to 1,5%.
The Central Bank also reduced its projection for economic growth this year, but is more optimistic than the financial market. In the Quarterly Inflation Report, released last Thursday (26), the Central Bank revised its estimate for GDP expansion from 2% to 1,6%.
The financial market also expects a 0,14% contraction in industrial production, with a recovery in 2015. The growth estimate for next year has increased from 2,2% to 2,3%.
The forecast for the trade surplus (positive balance of exports minus imports) was adjusted from US$2 billion to US$2,01 billion in 2014, and from US$10 billion to US$9,9 billion next year.
The projected exchange rate for the dollar remains at R$ 2,40 this year and US$ 2,50 in 2015.
Financial institutions also maintained their projection for the benchmark interest rate, the Selic, at the end of 2014, at the current level of 11% per year. For the end of 2015, the expectation remains at 12% per year.
For the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the estimate remains at 6,46% this year and 6,10% in 2015. The Central Bank forecasts that inflation will close this year at 6,4% and 2015 at 5,7%.