Market sees inflation below 5% in 2025, says Focus Bulletin.

By Felipe Moreira, from Infomoney - Market projections for inflation in 2025 fell for the twelfth consecutive week, according to the Focus Report released by the Central Bank this Monday (18). The estimate for the IPCA in the year went from 5,05% to 4,95%.

The median forecast for the exchange rate in 2025 was R$ 5,60.

The GDP projection also remained at 2,21%.

Meanwhile, the forecast for the benchmark interest rate this year remained at 15% for the eighth consecutive week.

Inflation

The inflation forecast for next year fell from 4,41% to 4,40%. The projection for 2027 remained at 4,00%, while the estimate for 2028 stayed at 3,80%.

For the IGP-M, projections for 2025 fell from 1,28% to 1,13%, while the estimate for 2026 fell from 4,40% to 4,32%. For 2027, the inflation projection remained at 4%, while for 2028 it stayed at 3,96%.

Expectations for the variation in administered prices within the IPCA (Brazilian Consumer Price Index) in 2025 rose from 4,71% to 4,72%. Projections for 2026 increased from 4,17% to 4,18%. For 2027, the estimate remained at 4,00%, while for 2028, the estimate decreased from 3,72% to 3,71%.

Exchange

For 2026, the estimate remained at R$ 5,70, while the projection for 2027 also remained at R$ 5,70. For 2028, the projection is R$ 5,70.

GPD

For gross domestic product (GDP), the median projection for 2026 was 1,87%. The projection remained low, from 1,93% to 1,87%, for 2027. For 2028, the projection remained at 2%, the same as 75 weeks ago.

Selic

The projection for 2026 remained at 12,50%, while for 2027 it stayed at 10,50%. For 2028, the estimate remained at 10% for 34 weeks.