The market prefers Campos and Aécio, but is betting on Dilma.
Without naming names, a poll conducted by the Mesquita family's newspaper with bankers, economists from financial institutions, traders, and owners of investment funds indicates that Dilma's image is in a "rampant deterioration process in the market," but guarantees her victory in the 2014 elections and in the first round; over the weekend, the publication launched an offensive against Dilma in an editorial, questioning her cognitive capacity.
247 - Estadão makes no secret of its disagreement with Dilma Rousseff's administration. Over the weekend, it published an editorial that goes on the offensive against the president, practically questioning her cognitive abilities (Read hereSubsequently, without mentioning names, a poll was published with ten influential market participants, including bankers, economists from financial institutions, traders, and owners of investment funds, in which President Dilma Rousseff's image appears tarnished.
Research suggests that, a year and a half before the election, the sector shows a preference for the names of Senator Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG) and the Governor of Pernambuco, Eduardo Campos (PSB).
According to the publication, despite resistance to the president and, specifically, to the Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, market participants believe that Dilma will win the election in the first round.
Dilma faces more market resistance than Lula. The economic situation also makes the relationship unfavorable. Dilma inherited a strong real of R$1,65 per dollar and is witnessing a drop in commodity prices. Furthermore, with her in power, there would be less dialogue, more resistance to private initiative, and interference in the Central Bank.
"Dilma's image is rapidly deteriorating in the market. She sends conflicting signals, interferes heavily in the economy, and has no reform agenda," stated the director of a foreign bank. According to a trader, Dilma shouldn't talk about interest rates, as it "discredits" the Central Bank. For one investor, the president has a vision contrary to private enterprise, attempting, for example, to lower investors' rates of return.
Regarding Dilma's potential presidential rivals, Aécio inspires confidence in the sector regarding his handling of the economy. "He is music to the market's ears. He is seen as a return to FHC's agenda. He is more orthodox," said an economist from a foreign bank.
Campos is still seen as an unknown quantity, but one that is generating interest. "His opinion is not clear, but there is no rejection of him from the market," declared the Brazilian banker.