Government forecasts 3% GDP growth in 2015.

Daniel Lima and Kelly Oliveira – Reporters for Agência Brasil 

Finance Minister Guido Mantega said today (28) that there will be a change in the economic scenario, justifying the projections above the market estimate for the numbers used in the 2015 Annual Budget Bill (Ploa), announced this morning, including economic growth, projected by the government at 3%, and inflation, at 5%. According to Mantega, problems such as drought and the smaller number of working days (which occurred this year due to the World Cup), will not be repeated.

"We are working with a GDP estimate of 3% and a minimum wage of R$ 788,06, with inflation of 5%. But there will be a change in the scenario, in which the current problems of this year will not be repeated in 2015," said the minister. The bill will be approved by the National Congress to be implemented by the next president.

Mantega even joked about his mistake when speaking about the minimum wage, which he announced as R$ 788,06 instead of R$ 788, provoking smiles during the press conference to announce the 2015 Budget Law figures. The number had been announced shortly before by the Minister of Planning, Miriam Belchior.

According to Mantega, the international scenario this year did not show the improvement expected by experts, but he highlighted that the United States is experiencing a more solid recovery, and he anticipates more consistent growth in that country's economy going forward. He assessed that Europeans are still "stumbling," but said that, despite this, it is possible to foresee an improvement in the economic outlook.

"We started 2014 with several problems, such as the drought, which affected prices, including those of energy and food. And, in addition, with the turbulence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) [the US Central Bank], which reduced stimulus to the local economy as the situation improved. On the other hand, it signaled the possibility of a more attractive market for investors, reversing the previous situation, when investors left emerging countries and transferred their investments to the US market."

The Brazilian real, he highlighted, also faced problems in the adverse scenario. This, the minister analyzed, demanded a more severe monetary policy in Brazil. Mantega said that the Central Bank had to adopt measures such as stimulating credit in response to this situation, with the contraction of economic activity.

"We had less economic growth. These are problems that will not be repeated, such as the drought, which was one of the worst. We had problems with the cost of energy and food. Inflation in the last quarter, according to the IPCA, was zero, at a low level. And we don't foresee any further problems this year."

The Finance Minister also pointed out that the country will have more working days, unlike during the World Cup. He said that the event led to a drop in consumption and production. "The World Cup was good for the population, who had fun. But we won't have another World Cup next year. Furthermore, the Central Bank changed the reserve requirement, the money that banks are required to deposit daily, to improve credit somewhat," said Mantega, justifying the projections.