Brazilian states could lose R$19 billion due to US tariffs, warns CNI.
Ceará, Espírito Santo, and Paraíba are among the states most affected if the 50% surcharge on Brazilian products comes into effect.
247 - If it comes into effect next Friday (1), the 50% tariff on Brazilian products announced by the United States could cause a loss of more than R$ 19 billion in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of several Brazilian states. The warning was issued by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), based on data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (Mdic).
According to UOLThe survey indicates that the states most dependent on exports to the US market tend to be the most affected, especially Ceará, Espírito Santo, and Paraíba. Proportionally, these states may suffer more than São Paulo, even though the latter accounts for the greatest losses in absolute terms.
In 2024, the United States accounted for 44,9% of Ceará's exports, 28,6% of Espírito Santo's, and 21,6% of Paraíba's foreign sales. The manufacturing industry is the most affected, but the impact spreads across different sectors.
CNI highlights the most exposed segments by state:
- Metallurgy: concentrates exports in Ceará, Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais and Pará.
- FoodIt has significant weight on the agenda of Paraíba, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Pernambuco.
- Cellulose and paperIt is relevant in Espírito Santo, Bahia, and Maranhão.
- Machinery and equipment: They have a particular impact on Paraná and Amazonas.
The study projects that São Paulo could suffer a contraction of R$ 4,4 billion in GDP with the measure. Next are Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, both with estimated losses of R$ 1,9 billion, Santa Catarina (R$ 1,7 billion) and Minas Gerais (R$ 1,6 billion).
In relative terms, Amazonas leads the proportional drop in GDP, with a decline of -0,67%. Santa Catarina (-0,31%), Pará (-0,28%) and Espírito Santo (-0,25%) also show significant losses.
According to the CNI (National Confederation of Industry), every US$1 billion exported generates approximately 24,3 jobs in Brazil and moves around R$3,2 billion in the economy. Therefore, the restrictions imposed by the United States could compromise job creation, productive investments, and tax revenue in the states.
