While some protest, others buy Petrobras.

Who profited from the Brazilian crisis? The question can be answered by the performance of Petrobras shares, which accumulated a gain of no less than 50% in April; while the harbingers of doom spread terror, which even included the idea of the "end of Brazil," leading naive investors to sell their positions, others (perhaps the same ones who spread the rumors) gorged themselves on the company's shares; foreign capital inflows hit record highs on the BM&FBovespa and show that, in the eyes of investors, Brazil has once again become a great opportunity.

April 13, 2015, 21:05 hUpdated July 05, 2018, 14:27 pm

Who profited from the Brazilian crisis? The question can be answered by the performance of Petrobras shares, which accumulated a gain of no less than 50% in April; while the harbingers of chaos spread terror, which even included the idea of the "end of Brazil," leading naive investors to sell their positions, others (perhaps the same ones who spread the rumors) gorged themselves on the company's shares; foreign capital inflows hit record highs on the BM&FBovespa and show that, in the eyes of investors, Brazil has once again become a great opportunity (Photo: Leonardo Attuch)

247 - Recently, the consulting firm Empiricus, which played a strong role in the 2014 election campaign, predicted "10 years of recession" in Brazil and sold clients, in confidential reports, the word of former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (read more). here).

Empiricus is the same consulting firm that, some time ago, sold the thesis of the "end of Brazil." Since Brazil didn't end, the new campaign is now about the "end of the president," in which the company defends the thesis that the Dilma government "outsourced" the economy to Minister Joaquim Levy and politics to Vice President Michel Temer – coincidentally or not, a thesis similar to that which has been presented by Senator Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG) in public statements and declarations.

This climate of fear may have led many investors to bet against Brazil, selling shares of national companies. However, as highlighted by the website Tijolaço, those who believed the prophecies of Empiricus, sponsor of several websites and blogs linked to the Abril group, missed a golden opportunity (read more). hereIn April, Petrobras shares rose by no less than 50%.

Recently, several positive news items have emerged: the prospect of the publication of the financial results and Shell's purchase of the BG group for US$70 billion, which focuses on the pre-salt reserves. Today, the shares surged again, given the possibility that the company will sell its stake in Braskem.

This means that while the protesters march across the country, others, far more astute, are stuffing themselves with Petrobras shares.

Read the article below from the Infomoney portal:

Petrobras shares rise 50% in one month amid rumors about its earnings report and the sale of Braskem.

State-owned company leads Ibovespa gains with a new influx of positive news and surges as much as 8% in this session alone.

By Rodrigo Tolotti Umpieres

SÃO PAULO - Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) is once again in the spotlight this Monday (13) and helps the Ibovespa to rise on a day of busy news for the state-owned company. The company's shares lead the index's gains by a wide margin after a series of news items, including information about the possible sale of the oil company's stake in Braskem (BRKM5).

At 11:40 AM (Brasilia time), the state-owned company's ordinary shares were up 7,95%, to R$ 12,77, while the preferred shares advanced 6,85%, to R$ 12,63. With this, the accumulated gains for the assets in the last 30 days exceed 50%. In the last month, the ordinary shares have already appreciated 56,69%, while the preferred shares have accumulated a 52,17% increase.

News for Petrobras remains busy, with reports about a possible new share issuance, expectations regarding the release of results, and potential changes to the profit-sharing regime. According to Celson Plácido, chief strategist at XP Investimentos, there isn't much new information, but a series of positive news items is causing the company's shares to soar, although he considers the increase "exaggerated."

Firstly, the influx of foreign investors after the opening of the US stock market positively influences the index, amidst a more "calm" political scenario, with the friendly relationship between Dilma Rousseff and Joaquim Levy, while Sunday's protests proved weaker compared to those in March, which should give the government more time to respond to the protests.

Adding to this is the news from Broadcast that Petrobras intends to sell its stake in Braskem, controlled by the state-owned company in conjunction with Odebrecht, as part of a divestment plan worth approximately US$13,7 billion. If it finds an interested party, which will not be easy, it could obtain around R$2,8 billion, corresponding to its 36,1% stake in the petrochemical company. This amount could be increased by 30% as a control premium, which would raise the total to be received by Petrobras to R$3,6 billion.

Furthermore, according to information from Bloomberg, more and more members of Congress, both from the opposition and government allies, are agreeing to open up the exploration of pre-salt areas to foreign oil companies. They argue that the Petrobras corruption scandal and the state-owned company's enormous debt limit its capacity to develop these areas. There are at least three bills in congressional committees proposing changes to the production-sharing model or eliminating the requirement for Petrobras to participate in all pre-salt auctions.

Meanwhile, looking at the results, the company acknowledges that the accounting losses are still being evaluated, and there is no date yet for the release of the financial statements. However, newspaper reports indicate that the results may be released between the 17th and the 20th.

And, with the rise of the dollar, the market expects a new share issuance by Petrobras, according to Folha de S. Paulo. The discussion, always latent, returned to the table after the company obtained a loan from China, worth US$ 3,5 billion, two weeks ago. The state-owned company has not commented on the matter.

According to the same newspaper, the dollar threatens Petrobras' profits from fuel price discrepancies. After four years of losses due to fuel price discrepancies, which caused an estimated deficit of up to R$ 90 billion, the company managed to recover R$ 6,4 billion in gasoline and diesel sales with the 60% drop in oil prices between July and January. However, the rise in the dollar is eliminating this benefit. According to CBIE, another price increase is urgent, since the opportunity with the positive discrepancy is definitively ending.

Finally, Petrobras shareholder BRAM (Bradesco Asset Management), where Joaquim Levy worked, nominated two names for the company's Board of Directors: Eduardo Bunker Gentil as a member representing minority ordinary shareholders and Otávio Yazbek as a member representing preferred shareholders.