Dollar could fall to R$4,60 this year, according to BTG Pactual.
The bank projects a trade surplus of US$90 billion in 2024, which should contribute to the appreciation of the real.
247 - BTG Pactual, in its economic analysis for 2024, predicts that the dollar will remain around R$ 4,80, with the potential to reach lower values, between R$ 4,70 and R$ 4,60, if the local economic scenario does not deteriorate, according to the report. reporter From Valor. Economist Iana Ferrão, responsible for the report sent to clients, highlights the possibility of a more robust national currency, considering the trajectory of the real compared to other emerging currencies since the pre-pandemic period.
Furthermore, BTG Pactual emphasizes the crucial influence of US interest rates on the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate in the coming months. With the start of the US interest rate easing cycle in the first half of 2024, the forecast is for an appreciation of the real relative to current levels, according to Ferrão.
Locally, BTG's projections indicate that the primary surplus target will remain at 0% of GDP for this year, with a contingency plan of R$ 23 billion. Regarding external accounts, the bank's economist estimates a robust trade surplus of US$ 90 billion for 2024, slightly below the previous year's figure, mainly due to adverse weather conditions that impacted the harvest.
Iana Ferrão points out that factors such as increased oil production, favorable prospects for iron ore, and the slowdown in domestic activity will help limit a potential loss in the trade balance, even in the face of reduced imports caused by the continued fall in the prices of imported goods.