The dollar surged 3%, reaching R$ 5,81, after China retaliated against US tariffs.
China has announced it will impose tariffs of 34% on all goods imported from the United States, in response to the tariff hikes announced by the Trump administration.
Felipe Moreira, from Infomoney - The spot dollar was trading sharply higher against the real on Friday (4), following the external appreciation against other emerging currencies linked to commodities amid the more than 7% drop in oil and the flight from risk assets after China imposed 34% tariffs on imports from the United States, in retaliation for Trump's tariff hike, which began on April 10.
According to data from the employment report known as the U.S. job market, 228 jobs were added in March. payroll released this Friday (4) by the Department of Labor.
What is the dollar exchange rate today? At 11:54 AM, the spot dollar was trading 3,29% higher, at R$ 5,813 for buying and R$ 5,814 for selling. On the B3 exchange, the dollar for May — currently the most liquid in Brazil — was up 3,11%, at 5.837 points.
Commercial dollar
- Purchase: R$ 5,785
- Sale: R$5,785
Tourism dollar
- Purchase: R$ 5,812
- Sale: R$5,992
What happened to the dollar today? After closing at its lowest level in 2025 the previous day, the US dollar opened higher against the Brazilian currency, while traders were concerned about a possible recession due to the Trump administration's tariffs.
Trump announced on Wednesday that he will impose a tariff of at least 10% on all exporters to the US, with even higher tariffs on about 60 nations to combat large trade imbalances with the US. In response, Canada said it will fight the tariffs with countermeasures, while China and the EU also vowed to retaliate.
The China announced that it will impose tariffs of 34%. to all goods imported from the United States, in response to the tariff hike announced by the Trump administration this week.
In this scenario, the market has brought forward its forecast for the start of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, following Chinese retaliation to US tariffs, and has begun pricing in a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points (bp) or more as the majority probability by December, according to a monitoring tool from the CME Group.
Brazilian interest rate futures are falling in the wake of Treasury yields, amid fears of a recession in the American and global economies and the possible anticipation of an interest rate cut in the US as a consequence of the escalating trade war launched by US President Donald Trump.
The reciprocal tariffs adopted by the White House could reduce global GDP by between 0,5% and 0,7% this year and cause a "stagflationary shock" in the US, raising inflation by 1,5 percentage points and causing GDP to fall by 1% to 1,5% in 2025, according to Bank of America. The bank also predicts a 50% chance of a recession in the US in the next 12 months.
Domestically, the General Price Index – Domestic Availability (IGP-DI) registered a deflation of 0,50% in March, after a rise of 1,00% in February, according to FGV. The result was close to the median estimate of a 0,52% drop in the Broadcast Projections survey.
(With Reuters and Estadão)
