Stock market: adrenaline continues in the markets.
The sudden rise and fall of indices should continue in the coming days with international tensions. Here in Brazil, inflation remains in the focus of investors
Lu Miranda_247 - The financial market went through a turbulent week, full of ups and downs. If you think the climate will calm down, forget that idea. The trend is for the stock market to become even more turbulent given the uncertainties about the solvency of the debts of countries in the eurozone, especially Greece and Portugal. When fear about the situation drives stock prices to very low levels, brief moments of reaction occur. This has been the case in recent days and is likely to continue this way this week. Commodities also repeat this behavior, making the investor's life even more exciting, or difficult, depending on each individual's risk appetite.
This week's focus will be on the aftermath of recent events that have shaken the global economy. The minutes from the last FOMC meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee of the US central bank, will likely provide new signals regarding US monetary policy, in addition to those presented by the institution's chairman, Ben Bernanke, in a press conference following the last meeting. On that occasion, the US benchmark interest rate was kept near zero, and the end of the bond-buying program in June was announced. It will be important to monitor all indicators of the US housing sector throughout the week. After all, this was the origin of the 2008 global financial crisis.
In Brazil, pay attention to the IPCA-15, which will be released by IBGE. This index anticipates the official inflation rate, which has been a major concern for the government and society. And the earnings season isn't over yet: the numbers released so far have significantly impacted stock market behavior. It's wise to keep an eye on the first-quarter results this week for Anhanguera, Bematech, BR Brokers, CR2, Inepar, JHSF, Magnesita, Marfrig, Panamericano, Sofisa, TAM, and Time for Fun.
COMPANIES TO MONITOR_ Start Monday the 16th by keeping an eye on the first reactions of Petrobras shares (PETR4 and PETR3). The state-owned company released its earnings report after the close of trading on Friday the 13th, and the results for the first quarter of the year were excellent. Net profit of R$ 11 billion represented an expansion of 42,2% compared to the same period in 2010. Net revenue reached R$ 54,8 billion, with an increase of 8,7%. This is a consequence of increased production and oil prices at the beginning of the year. And on the week's agenda:
MONDAY 16_ Pay attention to inflation and the trade balance in Europe, inflation indices IPC-S (with prices in the seven main capitals of the country) and IGP-10 (price evolution between the 11th of the previous month and the 10th of the current month), in addition to the trade balance in Brazil. In the United States, data on activity and the real estate market.
TUESDAY 17th - A day with a busier agenda. In Brazil, IPC-FIPE (with price variations in the capital of São Paulo). In Europe, inflation in England and economic sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone. But pay special attention to the data on the American economy. Numbers of building permits and new constructions in April, industrial production and installed capacity.
WEDNESDAY 18_ Short agenda, but commands respect. Unemployment rate in England and minutes from the FOMC, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) open market committee, the American central bank.
THURSDAY 19_ Total focus on the United States. There, the unemployment claims for the last week will be released, existing home sales data, leading indicators (which give an idea of how the economy will be in a few months) and economic data verified by the Philadelphia branch of the Fed.
FRIDAY 20_ In the morning, the IPCA-15 will be released, a preview of the official inflation rate that serves as a barometer for the index in the month. There will be no data from the American economy. In Europe, the consumer confidence index will be released.