Focus Bulletin: Inflation and GDP projections for 2024 remain unchanged.
The IPCA (Brazilian consumer price index) estimate for 2024 remained at 3,81% as the previous week, and the median projection for GDP growth this year remained at 1,60%.
Infomoney - The projection for inflation in 2024 made by analysts and the estimate for GDP remained unchanged from the previous week, according to data released this Tuesday (6) by the Central Bank's Focus Report. The release, which is normally made on Mondays, was delayed by one day due to the standard operation adopted by BC employees.
Inflation The IPCA estimate for 2024 remained at 3,81%, while the forecast for inflation in 2025 has remained at 3,50% for 28 weeks. The estimate for 2026 also remained at the same 3,50%, the same level as in the last 31 Focus Bulletins, the same rate of change expected for inflation in 2027.
GDP - The median projection for GDP growth in 2024 remained at 1,60%. The projection for 2025 was also maintained at 2,0% for the 8th consecutive week, and the projection for 2026 has been at 2,0% for 26 consecutive weeks. The estimate for 2027 has also remained at 2,0% for 28 weeks.
Selic - As in previous weeks, projections for the benchmark interest rate (Selic) remained unchanged across the entire survey horizon. The projection for 2024 remained at 9,00%, a level that has been stable for six weeks, according to analysts. The estimate for 2025 continued at 8,50%, and the projection for 2026, in turn, remained at the same 8,50% for 26 consecutive weeks. The projection for 2027 also remained at 8,50%.
Exchange - The median projection for the dollar in 2024 remained at R$ 4,92. The projection for 2025, in turn, was maintained at R$ 5,00, but the forecast for 2026 went from R$ 5,05 to R$ 5,04. The estimate for 2027 was maintained at R$ 5,10.
Primary result - The projection for the primary result in 2024 remained at -0,80% of GDP, a level maintained for seven consecutive weeks. The projection for 2025, in turn, continued at -0,60% of GDP. The estimate for 2026 was maintained at a deficit of -0,50% of GDP, and that for 2027 worsened, going from a deficit of -0,28% of GDP to -0,30% of GDP.
Public debt - For net public sector debt, the 2024 projection remained at 63,60% of GDP. The 2025 projection was maintained at 66,0% of GDP. The 2026 projection rose from 68,40% to 68,65% of GDP. The 2027 projection, in turn, increased from 69,81% of GDP to 69,95% of GDP.
Trade balance - The projection for Brazil's trade balance in 2024 fell after three consecutive increases, dropping from US$78,45 billion to US$76,90 billion, while the projection for 2025 decreased from US$70,0 billion to US$68,90 billion. The estimate for 2026 remained at US$71,50 billion. For 2027, the projection remained at US$74 billion.