Brazil's attack on China could be costly, predicts international trade expert.

Sputnik - As has become routine in international organizations, Brazil aligned itself with the US this week in a proposal to target China at the World Trade Organization (WTO), which could generate not only economic but also diplomatic retaliation in the not-too-distant future, according to an expert interviewed by Sputnik Brazil.

According to the proposal presented by Washington and Brasilia at the WTO, the principle of a market economy should apply to all members of the organization, in order to guarantee equitable conditions for economic competition in international trade. China has the status of a developing country, which the US does not accept.

The initiative between Itamaraty (Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs) and the White House demonstrates the strengthening of bilateral relations between the two countries; however, this has not resulted in any change in the trade balance, as explained by Marcus Vinícius Freitas, visiting professor of Public International Law and International Relations at the China University of Foreign Affairs.

In an interview with Sputnik Brazil, the professor, who lives in Beijing, considered the joint initiative against the Chinese misguided, both because of China's global rise even during COVID-19, and because President Jair Bolsonaro's government is once again targeting its main trading partner.

"What seems to me so far, despite all the government's actions in this regard, is that I haven't noticed any moment in which Brazil's trade balance with the US has changed substantially. So it seems complicated that we are taking some measures in this direction against what is our largest trading partner, when there is no one on the international market who can replace it," he stated.

Freitas assessed that it is quite likely that President Xi Jinping's government will send some signal of dissatisfaction to Brazil, as it has already done in recent controversies initiated by ministers or sons of Bolsonaro. And, if this occurs, the Chinese will have many reasons to do so. The possibility of retaliation is not ruled out by the analyst, but may not come in the short term.

"From what I've observed during my time living in China and from conversations I've had, the Chinese people possess an important aspect: their characteristic pragmatism. This gives them a long-term vision, and it's this vision that makes them understand that the relationship isn't between governments, but rather between countries," the professor said.

"So the current administration will eventually come to an end, in two or six years [if re-elected], but this relationship is with the country. I understand that the Chinese will not effectively change their policy much because of this long-term pragmatism [...]. So retaliation may happen, but it will take into account the transience of governments and the understanding that the bilateral relationship is more important than the current administration," he added.

US election, BRICS and global order: potential losses for Brazil

When questioned about the situation in the US during a presidential election year, Marcus Vinícius Freitas explained that he sees connections between the issue involving Washington, Brasília, and Beijing at the WTO, indicating that Bolsonaro may be fueling a conflict with the Chinese in a move that President Donald Trump wants: to have China as his number one enemy.

"The economic element is essential for him [Trump] at this moment, and we also cannot forget and fail to consider that the creation of an external enemy causes people in general to gravitate more towards whoever is in charge of the Executive Branch. The battle with China has this bias in the sense of seeking economic recovery and also making China be seen as the villain of the story, and this villain needs to be fought, and he is the person capable of doing that," he argued.

However, "in a fight between big dogs, whoever gets involved gets bitten," recited the professor from the University of Foreign Affairs in China, recalling a Portuguese saying. Thus, according to him, Brazil's presence in the face of the direct confrontation between the two world powers does not serve national interests and could bring problems.

Freitas recalled that the vast majority of Brazilian exports to Beijing are agricultural products. Herein lies the first clash: "we cannot forget that 40% of the post-trade war trade agreement between China and the US is related to agriculture," he pointed out, adding that the European Union's (EU) resistance to Brazilian agricultural products only increases China's importance to the local trade balance.

"China is currently Brazil's biggest buyer, it has a strategic interest in Brazil, and we also belong to BRICS, which gives us the opportunity to talk more frequently with China," said Freitas, who, when mentioning the bloc that brings together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, pointed out other points that could affect the country.

"The fact that Brazil is aligning itself with the US while being a partner of China in BRICS seems extremely misguided to me, because that also begins to break an important bond of relationship. After all, we begin to be seen not as a partner, but as a partner that is not very faithful in its interactions. So this greatly harms even the activities of BRICS because Brazil will be understood as someone who is lighting a candle to the wrong saint," he analyzed.

The expert interviewed by Sputnik Brazil also highlighted that Brazil has been positioning itself "with the country that is in decline," stating that the country should focus more on being closer to China, both to increase trade and to position itself "on the right side" of a shift in the global order that is coming.

"The world has been the same for over 70 years, this is going to happen, and China is the country that is promoting this. So Brazil's proximity to China could be reflected in the increased importance of Brazil on the global stage [...]. It's important to understand that in international relations there are neither permanent friends nor permanent enemies. What is permanent are the country's interests in the international order and, as far as I know, based on this observation and this situation, we are placing friendship above the country's long-term interests. And we know that governments come and go, but countries remain. The problem is what image of Brazil we are building internationally in the short, medium, and long term," he concluded.