After revision, 2015 GDP fell less than announced: 3,5%

Nielmar de Oliveira, reporter for Agência Brasil - The revision of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of all goods and services produced in the country) for 2015 showed that the country's economy fell in volume by 3,5% that year, not 3,8%. This finding comes from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which released today (9), in Rio de Janeiro, the National Accounts System 2010-2015. Revised figures indicate that the GDP for 2015 closed at R$ 5,996 trillion.

The data from the National Accounts System are always revised by IBGE during the two years following the reference period (2015), "in order to present a more detailed and structured result of the country's economic situation".

Revised data indicates that the largest decline by sector in 2015 occurred in industry (5,8% compared to 2014), followed by agriculture (3,3%) and services (2,7%), the first negative result in the series that began in 1996.

GDP per capita fell 4,3%, closing at R$ 29,324 thousand, compared to 2014 – the largest drop in this indicator since the beginning of the historical series in 1996. According to the figures released today, the most recent declines occurred in 2014 (-0,4%), 2009 (-1,2%) and 2003 (-0,2%).

Based on the figures released, it is possible to see that household consumption, which represents 62,5% of GDP, fell by 3,2% in 2015, registering the first drop since the -0,4% decline in 2003. The investment rate fell to 17,8%, a decrease of 3,1 percentage points compared to the peak of the historical series in 2013, when the investment rate reached 20,9%.

Despite a 3,2% drop in household consumption volume between 2014 and 2015, savings, still within the context of households, saw a nominal increase of 25,2% on the same comparative basis.

According to Carlos Sobral, manager of National Accounts at IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), "the fact that 2015 was a year of crisis led families to control their spending. Furthermore, in nominal terms, the growth in savings is a consequence of the 6,4% increase in income, which is higher than the 5,4% growth in consumption that year."

The external sector contributes to GDP.

The revised data from the System of National Accounts indicates that the external sector was the only one to contribute positively to the 2015 GDP, with a 6,8% growth in the volume of exported goods and services, while imports closed with a 14,2% drop – the largest decline since the -15,1% of 1999.

Among companies in the financial sector, gross value added registered nominal growth of 14,7%, reaching R$ 363 billion. Contributing to this result were increases in the Selic rate, from 11,8% to 14,3%, in the interest rate for individuals, from 31,2% to 35,7%, and in the interest rate for legal entities, from 16,6% to 19,5%.

Services go down

Regarding the services sector, which experienced its first decline since the series began in 1996, of the seven activities surveyed, only the administration, defense, health, public education, and social security sector showed growth compared to 2014: 0,2%.

The 7,3% drop in the trade sector was influenced by the contraction in sales of industrial products. Wholesale and retail trade activities, excluding motor vehicles and the trade/repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, accounted for approximately half (1,4 percentage points) of the decline in the gross value added of services.

Accounting for 62,5% of GDP, the 3,2% drop in household consumption had the main negative impact on the composition of GDP in 2015. It was the first decline since the -0,4% drop in 2003.