Food consumed at home registered deflation in 2023, after three years of increases.
The drop in prices in this category mainly benefits the poorest. Soybean oil, chicken pieces, and meats were the products that became most cheaper.
247 - Data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), released this Thursday (11), which indicate that the Inflation closed the year 2023 at 4,62%, below the upper limit of the target set by the Central Bank (BC). Data reveals that food consumed at home experienced deflation in 2023 after rising for three consecutive years. Deflation in this segment directly benefits the poorest population and represents a political gain for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who had made reducing food prices one of his campaign promises.
The Food and Beverages group experienced a deflation of 1,03%, driven by a drop in food prices for home consumption. Items such as soybean oil (-28,00%), chicken pieces (-10,12%), and meats (-9,37%) were the main contributors to this downward trend. Soybean oil stands out, with prices declining in 10 of the 12 months of 2023.
Comparatively, previous years were marked by significant increases in food prices, with rises of 13,21% in 2022, 8,23% in 2021, and 18,16% in 2020. (The journalist) Miriam Leitão He observes, in his column in the newspaper O Globo, that “the bumper crop of 2023, which was responsible for the price drop this year, is not expected to be repeated. Last year already suffered some repercussions from the effects of the climate, especially the rains in the South. In 2024, the effects of El Niño on crops may delay planting and harvesting. Therefore, some economists are already projecting that food inflation will be 4%.” According to IBGE, the production of cereals, legumes, and oilseeds should total 306,5 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 2,8% compared to 2023 (8,9 million tons).
Interviewed for this report, economist Ricardo Barboza, associate researcher at FGV Ibre, points out that although the possibility of a deflationary scenario not repeating itself in 2024, "we would go from -0,5% to something around 4,2% in food inflation, which is still benign behavior, as it is a number below the historical average, which after the implementation of the inflation targeting regime is around 7%".