The International Energy Agency predicts a surplus in the global oil market by 2025.
The institution had revised its demand growth forecast for 2025 downwards.
Reuters - Global oil supply could exceed demand by around 600.000 barrels per day this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a monthly oil market report on Thursday (13), after revising its demand growth forecast for 2025 downwards.
This surplus could increase by another 400.000 bpd if OPEC+ extends the reversal of production cuts and fails to control overproduction relative to quotas, the Paris-based agency said.
The IEA's February report on the oil market suggested a slightly smaller surplus of around 500.000 bpd, according to Reuters calculations based on IEA data.
The IEA has revised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 downward by 70.000 bpd, to around 1 million bpd, with growth largely driven by Asia, specifically China's petrochemical industry.
The data highlight the challenge facing the OPEC+ producer group in balancing the oil market this year, as escalating global trade tensions could impact demand amid robust supply growth.
“The macroeconomic conditions that underpin our oil demand projections deteriorated last month with escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and several other countries,” the IEA said, leading to a reduction in its demand growth estimates for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of this year.
On the supply side, the IEA forecasts that global supply growth in 2025 will double compared to the growth rate in 2024, to around 1,5 million bpd, assuming OPEC+ maintains its production cuts after its planned reduction in April.
