Atomized acceleration of the economy boosts Dilma

247 – Betting on pessimism, within a global scenario of uncertainties, always seems less risky. It will go wrong, say the skeptics and do-gooders, surrounded by conjecture. The problem, as the first figures for the Brazilian economy in 2013 indicate, is that, this year, betting against it is already showing signs of being much more of a political wishful thinking exercise than a cold, scientific analysis. Instead of an eclipse, what is emerging on the horizon is a typically tropical sun.

In recent days, a series of economic data have converged to point to a performance in 2013 that is far superior to that seen last year. Business leaders from different sectors of the economy – those that use inputs from the manufacturing industry to produce raw materials and final consumer products – are optimistic about increased production and sales this year, based on the initial results already achieved.

This is how sectors that buy steel, such as vehicle manufacturers and the construction industry, made acquisitions in January that were no less than 18% higher than those purchased in December, according to data from the National Institute of Steel Distributors (Inda). "The market is starting to grow again," President Carlos Loureira told the newspaper Valor Econômico. With a 3,4% increase in sales in January compared to the same period last year, the sector projects a 6% growth in the domestic market over last year through December.

In aluminum, another element present in numerous industrial sectors, the best indicator of growth is the sale of sheets, foils, and extrusions. In this field, sales in January, according to the Brazilian Aluminum Association (Abal), were already 5,9% higher than in the first month of last year. "We believe in sector growth of up to 5 percent for this year," says the association's president, Luiz Carlos Loureiro Filho. "We are optimistic."

The situation is no different for one of the largest bus and truck manufacturers in the country, MAN Latin America. "We already have orders indicating sales 20% higher than in 2012, due to the market's need to renew its fleet," says Roberto Cortes, president of the company. "Our activity in the first two months of the year is excellent compared to what we had in 2012."

In the same sector, Agrale, a traditional manufacturer of machinery and tractors, recorded a simply spectacular sales growth in January compared to December: 126% more. Company officials admit that this was an outlier, but based on it, they project growth for the company this year of more than 16% compared to last year. "The strong performance is linked to the depletion of inventories in our sector's industries," CEO Hugo Zattera told Valor.

A survey conducted among members by Abinee (Brazilian Association of the Electrical and Electronics Industry) found that 56% of member companies reported an increase in orders in January compared to December. This shows a warming up in the high-tech sector of the economy. "Optimism has increased because the signs given in January, a month that is never exceptionally strong in sales, indicate a great year ahead," says president Humberto Barbato. According to him, 79% of Abinee members indicated in the survey that they expect better sales in 2013 than in 2012.

Even in the machinery and equipment sector, where January showed a 3% drop compared to December, the data was welcomed. "This decline is seasonal and always happens at this time of year, but it was much smaller than in previous years," reported Marcos Bernardini, economic consultant at Abimaq.

In terms of major macroeconomic figures, the government also has reason to celebrate. The Central Bank's Focus Bulletin, which weekly captures the moods of financial market agents regarding data such as inflation and GDP growth, indicates this Monday, the 25th, that expected inflation is lower than the previous week – and growth is higher, at around 3% for the year. In other data, the stock of Treasury debt securities (everything the government owes to the market) declined by 4%, while tax revenue hit a new record.

If this trend continues, the best course of action for pessimists will be to start adjusting their rhetoric soon, lest they be left talking to themselves – after all, business owners, with their eyes on the factory floor and their cash flow, know that the right thing to do is to believe in results rather than be guided by pre-fabricated words.

For President Dilma Rousseff, with her reelection campaign underway and still without a strong opponent defined, the sunshine of the first half of the year brings with it a breeze capable of propelling her forward with fewer setbacks than many would like, from 2013 towards 2014.