Epidemiologist says coronavirus is expected to continue spreading in Brazil.
A study by UFPR indicates that the epicenter of the coronavirus has shifted to the South and Midwest regions, and, according to a specialist who spoke to Sputnik Brasil, the trend is for Covid-19 to continue spreading throughout the country.
Sputnik - According to a statistical model developed by researchers at the Laboratory of Statistics and Geoinformation at the Federal University of Paraná, the disease is spreading more rapidly in these two regions.
In the South, one person is infecting an average of 1,23 others, a rate that rises to 1,35 in the Midwest. When the indicator is greater than one, the absolute number of infected people increases exponentially.
In the North, the transmissibility index, which was once greater than one, is now at 0,86, which is also the case in the Northeast, which registers a rate of 0,92.
According to epidemiologist Márcio Bittencourt, a professor at the Albert Einstein Israelite Faculty of Health Sciences in São Paulo, the explanation for the spread of Covid-19 is both "temporal" and "geographical."
"It's simply a matter of timing. The epidemic is evolving with a geographical progression, coming from the first epicenters in the North and in São Paulo. It passes from one person to another, so the progression is geographical, following the route of roads and air and river connections," he explained.
The expert agrees that the social distancing measures adopted in the country, and in some cases the lockdown, contributed to slowing down the transmission.
However, he believes that if measures to contain the spread of Covid-19 are not taken, the disease is likely to continue spreading and reach all parts of Brazil, albeit slowly.
"If more aggressive measures are not taken, eventually it will reach everywhere," he stated.
Despite warnings from experts and the number of cases and deaths remaining high, several cities and states in Brazil are adopting measures to ease quarantine restrictions.
"Now it is expanding into the interior of São Paulo, to the rest of the Southeast, including Minas Gerais, to the Midwest, in all states, mainly Goiás, to the South, Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul," indicated the epidemiologist.
According to figures from the Ministry of Health updated on Thursday (25), the Central-West region has 77.098 cases of Covid-19 and 1.416 deaths, while the South has 62832 cases and 1.328 deaths. The most affected region is the Southeast, with 427.499 cases and 25.505 deaths.
"The disease is accelerating, maintaining a rate of progression above one in practically all of the Midwest and South, and even in most of the Southeast, except perhaps Rio de Janeiro," Bittencourt stated.
In a scenario like this, the epidemiologist criticizes the stance adopted by some cities regarding social distancing.
"There are cities with concert halls and amusement parks open, there are cities with restaurants, bars and gyms open, so I don't know exactly what precautions are being taken in each place," he lamented.
The expert also says that measures to control the spread of the virus should have been adopted more "aggressively," and emphasizes that "there is much more to be done" besides social distancing, such as "more intensive testing."
"Even where social distancing precautions have been taken, we should still be isolating all cases individually, quarantining all contacts, and using lockdown measures," opined Márcio Bittencourt.