Global report warns that warming above 1,5°C is already causing reef collapse and threatening the Amazon.
A study by the University of Exeter, released on the eve of the COP30 conference, shows that the planet has entered a new climate era and requires immediate action.
247 - The planet has already passed one of the first tipping points of the Earth system, marking the beginning of a new climate era that could cause catastrophic damage if urgent action is not taken. This finding comes from the second Global Tipping Point Report, released this Sunday (13) by the University of Exeter and international partners. The study was launched on the same day that the Pre-COP30, a preparatory meeting for the climate conference to be held in Brazil in 2025, begins in Brasília.
The document issues a stark warning: warm-water coral reefs, on which nearly a billion people and a quarter of all marine life depend, have already passed their thermal tipping point. According to scientists, widespread reef death is underway, and unless global warming is reversed, coral ecosystems as we know them will cease to exist, leaving only small refuges that must be urgently protected.
For Helga Correa, a conservation specialist at WWF-Brazil, the report reinforces that humanity is crossing critical boundaries. “The Amazon, which can still play a decisive role in regulating the global climate, is dangerously approaching a point of no return,” she warned. Despite the alarming scenario, Helga emphasizes that “there are still ways to reverse this trajectory, with robust conservation policies, valuing the forest peoples, investments in restoration, and an inclusive and sustainable development model.”
She emphasizes that so-called “positive tipping points”—such as the rapid adoption of clean energy and the restoration of ecosystems—represent the possible path to change. “Working with the COP30 Presidency aims precisely at this: creating a cascade of positive changes where sustainable innovation becomes the most attractive and accessible option. It is fundamental that governments, businesses, and society act together so that Brazil maximizes its potential in green technologies and promotes this global transformation.”
Dr. Mike Barrett, chief scientist at WWF-UK and co-author of the report, described the findings as “extremely alarming.” “The fact that warm-water coral reefs are exceeding their thermal tipping point is a tragedy for nature and for the people who depend on them for food and income,” he stated. He further warned that, without immediate action, “we will also lose the Amazon rainforest, glaciers, and vital ocean currents—a truly catastrophic outcome for all of humanity.”
The report, prepared by 160 scientists from 87 institutions in 23 countries, highlights that other tipping points—such as the irreversible melting of polar ice caps, the collapse of ocean currents, and the death of the Amazon rainforest—are dangerously close to being reached. The study emphasizes that every fraction of a degree and every year above 1,5°C makes a difference, reinforcing the urgency of reducing emissions and increasing carbon removal.
Professor Tim Lenton, from the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, highlighted: “We are rapidly approaching several tipping points in the Earth system that could transform our world, with devastating consequences for people and nature. This demands immediate and unprecedented action from COP30 leaders and policymakers worldwide.”
Scientist Manjana Milkoreit, from the University of Oslo, warned that current political thinking does not consider tipping points and that "preventing points of no return requires early mitigation measures that minimize the peak of global temperature." According to her, global governance needs to be reshaped to deal with unprecedented and irreversible challenges.
Beyond the grim diagnosis, the report points to actions to trigger positive tipping points, such as accelerating the energy transition. Since the first report in 2023, there has been notable progress in the expansion of solar and wind energy and in the adoption of electric vehicles. These movements, according to the authors, show that "positive tipping points offer the only reliable path to a safe, just and sustainable future."
The research group is collaborating with the COP30 Presidency, led by Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, who highlighted Brazil's role in the global mobilization: “Our Presidency invited community leaders, academics, and scientists to explore the best of science and ancestral wisdom on how our institutions can gain versatility in responding to the climate crisis. The report is a positive and timely response to our invitation,” he stated.
Among the case studies presented, the report confirms that tropical coral reefs are close to total collapse; that the Amazon could reach its tipping point with warming around 1,5°C; and that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is at risk of collapse below 2°C, which would have severe effects on the climate of Europe, Africa, and Asia.
Lenton concluded the document with a message of urgency and hope: “Only through a combination of decisive policies and civil society action can the world change its trajectory—from facing existential risks of Earth system tipping points to seizing positive opportunities for transformation.”