Trump redefines relationship with Brazil and puts Rubio in his place, according to the Presidential Palace.

247 - The Brazilian government believes that US President Donald Trump's stance toward Brazil has changed significantly in recent weeks. As a result, members of the Presidential Palace and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs believe that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will have little room to maneuver in negotiations regarding tariffs and sanctions against Brazilian officials. This information comes from [source missing]. g1. 

So far, Trump has not indicated what concessions will be demanded in exchange for easing the so-called "tariff hike" and sanctions. The expectation is that, in the coming days, the American president will meet with Rubio and officially define the parameters of the negotiations.

Direct channel between Lula and Trump unlocks dialogue.

Marco Rubio, known for his ideological profile and criticism of left-wing governments, as well as his history of interaction with Bolsonaro's supporters, was seen by analysts as a potential obstacle to negotiations. However, sources within the Brazilian government emphasize that "the only figure who sets the tone in the American government is Donald Trump, and Rubio does exactly what the president dictates."

A Lula aide pointed out that, during the phone call between the presidents, "this exchange of contacts shows that Rubio won't be able to set the tone of this conversation." According to him, "Rubio and his team stopped posting things against Brazil, which shows a certain level of control. It's an indication that the White House will continue to conduct the negotiations. Rubio won't be able to create problems."

Sources interviewed for this report emphasized that the phone call between Lula and Trump was arranged directly by the White House, without the involvement of the State Department, reinforcing the centralization of American foreign policy. To facilitate the call, the United States embassy in Brazil acted as an intermediary with the Presidential Palace.

Rubio's relationship with Brazil

Marco Rubio has a long-standing relationship with Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira, dating back to when he was a senator and Vieira served as ambassador in Washington. The two met in person in July of this year and have maintained contact via messages. Despite this, Bolsonaro's supporters communicate with members of the second tier of the State Department and other agencies, without direct contact with Rubio.

Factors behind Trump's change in stance.

The Brazilian government points to three factors that explain the change in the American president's stance: Brazilian diplomatic action, pressure from the private sector, and the perception that the tactic of pressuring the Brazilian judiciary had not been effective.

Sources from the Planalto Palace emphasize that Bolsonaro supporters tried to convince Trump that there would be strong mobilization against the Lula government and the Supreme Federal Court (STF), which could favor the trial of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) or even the approval of an amnesty. None of this materialized. The debate about amnesty and reduced sentences for those convicted in the coup plot in Congress lost momentum, while the image of the Lula government was strengthened.

"Hobby horse"

A Brazilian diplomat stated that "they can't completely reverse the tariff increase, but they are creating the conditions to back down. It may take time, extending until the 2026 elections, but there may be some relief in the short term," referring to the possibility of Trump expanding the list of Brazilian products exempt from the 50% surcharge.