Toffoli is expected to change his vote on the imprisonment issue in order to keep Lula in jail and appease the military.
The Brazilian Supreme Court (STF) is expected to heed the Bolsonaro government and the military and keep Lula imprisoned; this will be the consequence of the vote, scheduled for April, on the issue of imprisoning people convicted in the second instance; according to journalist Andréia Sadi, in her blog, the decisive vote will be that of the president of the STF, Dias Toffoli; he has said behind the scenes that he will vote against Lula in the name of a supposed "balance of the country".
247 - The Brazilian Supreme Court (STF) is expected to side with the Bolsonaro government and the military and keep Lula imprisoned. This will be the consequence of the vote, scheduled for April, on the issue of imprisoning people convicted in the second instance. The Court's current understanding, in favor of imprisonment after the second instance, is contrary to the Constitution, which stipulates imprisonment only after all legal appeals have been exhausted, including the STF. A change in stance had been signaled by the ministers, but it is not expected to occur. According to journalist Andréia Sadi, in her blog, the decisive vote will be cast by the president of the STF, Dias Toffoli. In 2016, he voted to uphold the Constitution; now, he is expected to change his position, in the name of a supposed "balance of the country."
"The issue is a concern for the Jair Bolsonaro government. The Minister of Justice, Sergio Moro, for example, declared in his inaugural speech that he intends to send a package to Congress with measures to combat corruption, including the possibility of imprisonment after a second instance ruling," wrote Andrea Sadi.
On April 3rd, on the eve of the vote on a habeas corpus in favor of Lula, the Army commander, General Eduardo Villas Bôas, openly pressured the Supreme Federal Court (STF). He did so with a tweet in which he stated that the Army was "attentive to its institutional missions," a veiled threat of a coup d'état should Lula be released.
When the Supreme Court discussed the issue in 2016, the vote was close: 6 to 5. At the time, Dias Toffoli voted against imprisonment before final judgment. Since then, there has been a change in the composition of the Court, and Toffoli assumed the presidency of the court in September, wrote Sadi. The explicit alliance between Toffoli and Bolsonaro is the guarantee that the Supreme Court will keep Lula as a political prisoner.