US tariff hike cools Tarcísio's plan to run for President in 2026.

247 - Following the negative impact caused by the announcement of new tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian products, the possibility of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), running for re-election in 2026 has become more likely behind the scenes of São Paulo politics. This information was published by the portal [website name missing]. UOL.

The episode of the so-called "tariff hike," officially announced on the 30th, undermined Tarcísio's image as a potential presidential candidate. According to members of both the allied base and the opposition, the governor's reaction to the case—which included criticism of President Lula (PT) and silence regarding the involvement of Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) in international pressure—generated wear and tear and reinforced the perception that he would be more inclined to seek a second term in the state.

“Tarcísio is focused on his work, which is the state of São Paulo. Naturally, this involves reelection,” stated Guilherme Afif Domingos, extraordinary secretary of Strategic Projects for the São Paulo state government. A state deputy close to the governor was more direct: “He is a candidate for reelection.”

The connection with Bolsonaro's political movement also came to be seen as a risk factor. Tarcísio was Minister of Infrastructure under Jair Bolsonaro and still carries a strong association with the former president. The tension increased with public criticism from Eduardo Bolsonaro, who, from the United States, accused the governor of "servile subservience to the elites" for trying to negotiate the repeal of the tariffs.

According to political scientist Fabrício Amorim, from PUC-SP, the current scenario favors Tarcísio's candidacy for reelection. He highlights that control of the state apparatus, the rejection of the left in São Paulo, and the lack of a competitive name in the opposition strengthen this possibility. "Considering the current political context after the fare hike, a candidacy for Tarcísio de Freitas for reelection as governor of the state would be an honorable way out, since the governorship for another four years would increase his political capital, making him a natural candidate for the presidency in 2030," he assesses.

According to Amorim, the relationship with Eduardo Bolsonaro is likely to remain conflictive. "The congressman sees the governor as a threat to his own political growth. Hence, the criticisms that Eduardo launches and will likely continue to launch as long as Tarcísio has significant political capital for electoral contests."

Since the crisis worsened, Tarcísio has intensified his presence in cities in the interior of São Paulo and increased the number of meetings with mayors. In 2025 alone, up to July 25th, the governor had already had 32 meetings with mayors, surpassing the total for 2024 (26) and also 2023 (29). According to the state government, "strengthening the institutional relationship between the state and the municipalities is fundamental for São Paulo to continue moving in the right direction."

Along the same lines, Tarcísio has adopted a discourse of depoliticizing the trade problem with the US, seeking to distance himself from polarization. “It’s time to put politics aside, to see the national interest, to understand the nature of the geopolitical movement that is underway so that we can pursue the national interest. Pursue the country’s interest, go to the negotiating table, leaving aside any issues, leaving ideology, leaving differences aside,” he stated in a press conference in Rio Claro on July 22nd.

Tarcísio's absence from the pro-Bolsonaro rally on Paulista Avenue last Sunday (3) also drew attention. The governor cited health issues — he will undergo surgery — but Republican leaders believe the event will serve as a “thermometer” to measure the impact of public support for the former president and its real political weight. Depending on the result, the degree of Tarcísio's exposure to Bolsonarism may be adjusted in the coming months.