Tarcísio changes the tone of his speech and considers running for President in 2026, while keeping open the possibility of re-election.

247 - The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), has adopted a strategy to keep two possibilities open in 2026: seeking reelection in the state or running for President of the Republic.

According to a report in the newspaper O Estado de S.Paulo, Tarcísio has already begun talks with marketing experts, is making changes to his communication strategy, and adjusting the tone of his speeches to go beyond the borders of São Paulo.

The advance preparation aims to prevent the governor from starting from scratch in a potential presidential run. The plan is to arrive at the decision point with a prepared speech, team, and political strategy to support a national project. If he chooses to run for president, Tarcísio will be obliged to leave the São Paulo state government in April 2026.

Between São Paulo and Brasília

Although he reiterates that his priority is reelection in São Paulo, where he believes he has a comfortable chance of winning, Tarcísio has changed his tone regarding the presidential race. Today, he admits the possibility of running, provided there is an explicit request from former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), to whom he reaffirms his loyalty.

Behind the scenes, the governor's emissaries have already approached figures like Chico Mendez and Paulo Vasconcelos for informal soundings about the election. According to allies, the trend is that Tarcísio will repeat his partnership with Pablo Nobel, who was responsible for his victorious campaign in 2022.

In a statement, the Palácio dos Bandeirantes (São Paulo state government headquarters) affirmed that there are no emissaries choosing the team on behalf of the governor. "This decision is exclusively Tarcísio de Freitas's, who is the one who negotiates and chooses his team," the press office stated.

Communication and coordination with business owners 

The governor has been increasing his presence at financial market events and in private meetings with business leaders. In these meetings, he presents diagnoses of Brazil's challenges, defends measures to stimulate economic growth, and criticizes the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

Tarcísio's shift is also reflected in the tone of his pronouncements. While at the beginning of his administration he avoided direct attacks, the governor now adopts a more belligerent discourse. At a BTG Pactual Bank forum, he stated that "Brazil can no longer tolerate Lula."

“We’ve been arguing about the same person for 40 years. Brazil can’t take any more excessive spending. Brazil can’t take any more, it won’t tolerate any more tax increases. Brazil can’t take any more corruption. Brazil can’t take any more of the PT. Brazil can’t take any more of Lula,” declared Tarcísio.

Pressure from the Centrão (center-right bloc) and the Bolsonaro factor.

The governor's indecision comes amid increasing pressure for him to run for president. Leaders of the Centrão (center-right bloc) believe it will be difficult to resist. Bolsonaro's allies believe that the messages extracted from the former president's cell phone—revealed by the Federal Police—strengthen Tarcísio as the natural successor and weaken the argument that Bolsonaro intends to launch a family member.

A close ally, however, believes that the governor will only enter the race if "the stars are aligned": support from the main right-wing and center-right parties, explicit endorsement from Bolsonaro, and a favorable political environment given the evaluation of the Workers' Party administration. As those close to him point out, Lula is a formidable opponent and "knows how to win elections."