Brazil's Supreme Court prioritizes concluding Bolsonaro's trial in October to avoid 'electoral contamination'.
The Supreme Court wants to bring predictability to the country amid rumors that the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), under Nunes Marques in 2026, could reverse Bolsonaro's ineligibility.
247 - The Brazilian Supreme Court (STF) has ruled that the criminal trial of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) will take place amidst the right-wing demonstrations planned for September 7th. According to Malu Gaspar of the newspaper O Globo, the decision raises the possibility of increased tensions between Bolsonaro supporters and the Court, but was not considered a risk factor by the justices.
According to sources close to Cristiano Zanin, president of the First Panel, and the case's rapporteur, Alexandre de Moraes, the Supreme Court's priority is to conclude the trial by September, before the end of October. The strategy is clear: to define Bolsonaro's political future in advance, possibly consolidating his ineligibility, a year before the 2026 elections.
Criminal conviction and permanent ineligibility. Although Bolsonaro has already been deemed ineligible by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) in two cases, Supreme Court justices believe the decision could still be reversed in the future. This is because, in August 2026, Justice Kassio Nunes Marques, appointed by Bolsonaro, will assume the presidency of the TSE, a period when candidate registrations are traditionally filed. Furthermore, the vice-presidency of the TSE will also be held by André Mendonça, another Supreme Court justice appointed by Bolsonaro, which reinforces the magistrates' concern.
Even though this hypothesis seems unlikely today, it is frequently mentioned behind the scenes of Bolsonaro's supporters and even privately considered within the Supreme Court itself. A criminal conviction, however, would have an immediate effect: it would make Bolsonaro's ineligibility definitive and immune to any attempt at reversal in the Electoral Court.
Strategic dates and political impact
According to the calendar established on Friday (15), the trial will be concluded by September 12, just a few days after the pro-Bolsonaro demonstrations on September 7. The decision comes before the change of command at the STF: Luís Roberto Barroso will leave the presidency for Edson Fachin on September 29.
According to members of the Court, this coincidence also did not weigh on the decision. For them, the main concern is to conclude the process quickly, ensuring time for the court to substantiate its decisions and reduce the temperature of the political debate.
The Supreme Court's calculation is both symbolic and strategic. Beyond outlining Bolsonaro's fate with a greater margin of safety, the measure ensures institutional stability in a scenario where Bolsonaro's supporters insist on questioning judicial decisions and maintaining expectations about potential legal reversals.
