Pension reform is a debt to the sponsors of the coup.

Hylda Cavalcanti, from Rebuildables - The Temer government managed to approve the proposal that freezes public spending for six months, a shorter period than the standard time frame for processing this type of legislation in Congress. And it wants to pressure its allied parliamentary base to consider the pension reform in 2017 with the same speed. The objective, according to political scientists, is clear: to fulfill the agenda imposed by the private sector and the financial market for their support in the impeachment process of Dilma Rousseff, which brought him to power. But no one, neither from the allied base nor the opposition, hides the challenge that the president faces anymore. And the bets are that the expectation launched by the Planalto Palace, that the matter will be approved by May, will hardly be fulfilled.

According to Antonio Augusto de Queiroz, known as Toninho, a political scientist at the Inter-Union Department of Parliamentary Advisory (DIAP), the financial system can be identified as having an interest in the reform, especially due to private pension funds. “As access to official benefits is restricted and the time required for access is lengthened, it is natural that people with income seek to invest resources in supplementary pension plans. This adjustment is not only about fiscal spending cuts, but also about market pressure, from banks and insurance companies in the pension sector,” he stated during a recent assessment for the Portal. Other words.

According to Toninho, "the issue of Social Security is different." "The topic has a degree of complexity that needs to be discussed by technicians and parliamentarians, not to mention that it affects people's objective rights. Everyone will try to understand what is being discussed, give their opinion, and participate in the discussion in some way."

According to him, in the case of Social Security, "the person will do the math and see that they will need to work another 15 years to retire." "Those who are currently entitled to a special benefit or retirement, for example, will see that the proposal practically eliminates all of these special retirements. It's a very harsh reform and will provoke great resistance. People will react."

Political analyst Alexandre Bandeira, director of the Brazilian Association of Political Consultants in the Federal District (Abcop), also points out the issue of timing for the government. According to him, if the Executive branch does not coordinate well to vote on the matter by June or July 2017, "it will hardly succeed after the second half of the year." "Because people will already start thinking about discussing elections, and parliamentarians may no longer be so willing to support the measure and risk public dissatisfaction," he stated.

Generally speaking, according to data from Diap, the Temer government's base in the Chamber of Deputies (where the proposal's processing begins) is currently structured as follows: the left-wing opposition, with 98 parliamentarians, and the other 415 deputies from parties within the government's base. Of these 415, 240 provide consistent support to the government, and 175 provide conditional support. "This means that, of these 175, approximately one-third may disagree with the reform for ideological reasons, and two-thirds may create difficulties for self-serving reasons, negotiating some compensation for the political cost of voting with the government," assesses Toninho.

According to the political scientist from Diap, regarding the issue itself, conditional support tends to diverge more, even with incentives, than in other matters, since everyone has, if not themselves, some interest within their family that could be harmed by the new pension rules.

The decline of Lava Jato.

Alexandre Bandeira, in turn, pointed out that there are several issues to be considered next year during the legislative process of reviewing the matter. One of them is the Lava Jato investigation itself, whose accusations against politicians have been getting closer to the government and several parliamentarians. Secondly, there is the proximity of 2018, when new presidential elections will be held (under the current rules), and finally, the potential public dissatisfaction of deputies and senators due to voting in favor of the measure. "These three factors could interfere with and further divide the support of the government's allied base," he said.

Another assessment made by Bandeira is that Temer will try to convey the idea that his government is one of "transition," as a way to move the country away from a previous model that, in the view of the PMDB members, had a more populist character (the PT governments) and move towards a model that is not yet well defined.

“No one yet knows what this new model of government will be like, should the same group that supported the impeachment remain united and win the 2018 elections, because even the support and possibilities of candidacies are uncertain. So, either he (Temer) demonstrates this transitional character of his administration and hurries to approve what he wants and show a kind of 'homework' to the business community that supports him until July, or he misses this window of time and risks ending his term without showing what he came for.”

The political analyst highlighted what he considers a significant "Achilles' heel" for the president, which is the issue of ethics in his administration, with repercussions in the National Congress. "Temer will need to create a sense among the business community that they can invest in the country. Otherwise, he won't be able to implement the measures he wants," he stated.

Appeals and disbelief

Among parliamentarians, the situation seems to be defined in the same tone. Proof of this is that the government leader in Congress, Romero Jucá (PMDB-RR), ended the work, last Thursday (15), recognizing that the year was difficult. Jucá thanked the agreement made between the leaders to get the Union budget approved and asked for everyone's help to "help the country face the crisis in 2017". While the PT leader in the Senate, Humberto Costa (PE), said he believes the situation will worsen from January onwards.

According to Costa, "the way for the country to return to normality is the resignation of the president and the calling of direct elections for president of the Republic." The senator also suggested the election of a constituent assembly exclusively to vote on a political reform necessary for the country.

The processing of Proposed Amendments to the Constitution (PECs) usually takes up to a year to reach its conclusion. In the case of minimal approval, with adherence to all procedural rules and approval of reports on the same day of presentation, without requests for review, an average approval period of 231 days is expected. This equates to approximately seven months of processing. In the case of the PEC on public spending, the voting process lasted six months.

“Considering that we had a year of impeachment voting by Congress, the holding of the Olympics and municipal elections in the country, this deadline was a record,” Toninho stated. On other occasions, the deadline may have been brought forward, but in relation to matters considered popular and dealing with agendas approved by voters with the votes of presidents who had already included them in their government programs – which is not the case with Michel Temer.

Now, the Planalto Palace announces its expectation of having the pension reform ready for implementation by May (some say April). Considering that the text arrived at the House at the end of November, everything indicates that 2017 will not be an easy year for either the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate – whether for parliamentarians from the allied base or the opposition.